Why international tourists haven’t come back to Australia yet

There’s been no miracle rebound after Covid for the Australian tourism industry. But two upcoming events might just help turn that around.

Aussie tourism will get a twin boost in early 2023 with the Australian Open in Melbourne and WorldPride in Sydney, but international visitor levels are not expected to pass pre-pandemic levels until 2025, government figures show.

While other economic indicators quickly bounced back after Covid-19, there has been no miracle rebound for international tourist numbers, with the most recent ABS data showing Australia had 1.2 million overseas arrivals in November. In January 2020 there were 2.26 million.

The NSW government is expecting 78,000 tourists from outside Sydney for WorldPride, a kind of mega Mardi Gras in February and March. But it has no estimate as to how many of the tourists will be international visitors.

Sydney’s Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras Parade is the designated WorldPride event this year, which should mean even more international tourists. Picture: Jeffrey Feng

Tennis Australia said its ticket sales for the 2023 Australian Open were similar to 2020, which was a record year for the event. Nine per cent of tickets have been sold to international tourists so far, down from 11 per cent in 2020.

Tourism & Transport Forum CEO Margy Osmond said the sluggish return of international arrivals was mainly a product of expense and reduced inbound capacity, but there were also other factors at play.

“We’re slam bang in the middle of what is the most competitive tourism market the world has ever seen,” she said. “Every country in the world is vying for the footloose high-spending traveller. As a consequence it is an incredibly tough market.”

The Australian Open has taken on a festival flavour itself in recent years, with costumed crowds adding to the colour.

Older people were also still biding their time before travelling internationally again, Ms Osmond said, while a growing cohort were concerned about the sustainability aspect of travel and the carbon footprint of long-haul flights.

“This is an issue for many travellers in a way that it just wasn’t before the pandemic, and it’s even more trenchant in the business travel space,” she said.

According to Tourism Australia, the number of seats on planes coming in to the country in November was 66 per cent of November 2019 levels. That number is set to increase, but gradually, with the June 2023 figures forecast to be 83 per cent of what they were in June 2019.

The absence of Chinese tourists is another factor. Formerly our biggest market for international arrivals, visitors from China are no longer even in our top 10.

Tourism and Transport Forum Chief Executive Margy Osmond. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Christian Gilles

Trade and Tourism Minister Don Farrell. Picture: Supplied

But the government is forecasting a gradual return as relations between Canberra and Beijing begin to thaw.

Tourism Minister Don Farrell said arrivals from China were “expected to return to prominence” between now and 2027.

A total of 3.5 million international visitors were forecast to arrive in Australia this year, rising to 9.5 million in 2025 and 11 million in 2027, Mr Farrell said. Arrival numbers should exceed pre-pandemic levels by 2025, he added.

Kylie Minogue will headline the WorldPride concert in Sydney. Picture: Kate Green/BFC/Getty Images for BFC

Sydney WorldPride Chief Executive Kate Wickett said more than 500,000 people are expected to participate in the festival’s free and ticketed events, including a concert headlined by Kylie Minogue and an early-morning march over the Sydney Harbour Bridge.

“Mardi Gras always brings people from around Australia and across the world to Sydney … and Sydney WorldPride is also a 17-day festival, so we’re expecting tourists will stay longer than they do in a normal Mardi Gras year,” Ms Wickett said.

North Americans were “by far” the number-one international ticket buyer for WorldPride events, she said.

Victoria is also hoping to grab its share of international WorldPride visitors, with its own LGBTQIA celebration Midsumma taking place beforehand, and the ChillOut queer culture festival in regional Daylesford afterwards.

“With a spectacular offering of major events, world-class cultural institutions, bustling night-life and an enviable reputation as Australia’s capital of cool, Melbourne welcomes the world’s LGBTQIA+ community with open arms,” Victorian Tourism Minister Steve Dimopoulos said.

Originally published as Why international tourists haven’t come back to Australia yet