Why Anthony Albanese is in deep trouble at next federal election

Voters have turned off Labor everywhere as Australians’ standards of living plummets under Anthony Albanese, writes James Campbell.

COMMENT

For months now the general view in Canberra has basically been ‘sure Albo is behind in the polls but there’s still bugger-all chance Peter Dutton will end up in the Lodge after the next election’.

That’s because thanks to the Greens and the Teals, the mountain Dutton needs to climb to get back to office in one term, is just too high.

The conventional wisdom has it that though the PM has little chance of being returned in majority, he’s more likely than not to carry on in office in a minority.

This survey from Accent Research and the pollsters RedBridge exposes the Dutton-can’t-win scenario as out-of-date.

It makes it clear the opposition leader’s plan to win by ignoring the centre of the cities and making himself the ‘Donut King’ of the outer suburbs and regions is paying off.

For while voters have turned off Labor everywhere, the swings in the outer suburbs and regions are now large enough for him to have a chance of winning enough seats to tip out Albo.

That’s because it’s almost certain it will be Dutton who ends up with the largest bloc in the next parliament and he’s likely to be close enough to have a chance of ending up at the head of a minority government.

Indeed there’s now even a small chance Dutton could end up with a majority.

Small – but growing.

The last time Accent Research and RedBridge conducted this exercise in July and August, Labor were the clear favourites to be the largest party in the 150-seat-parliament, with a predicted range of 65 to 75.

The most likely outcome for Labor was 69.

At that time the modelling showed the best Dutton and the Coalition could hope for was 73 seats with a worst-case scenario of 61 and a most likely outcome of 67.

Fast forward to today and Redbridge predicts the best case scenario for Albo is 71 seats with a worst case of 59 and a most likely outcome of 65.

On the other hand, on a good day Dutton could now snag up to 78 seats – which would not only mean he can elect a Speaker but would give him a buffer of two votes in case any of his troops go rogue.

The most likely outcome however is 71.

But if this trend continues then things are only going to get better for Dutton.

You don’t have to be Einstein to understand the reason why everything is going south for Albo – Australians’ standards of living have plummeted in the time Labor has been in office.

Looking down a list of Labor’s primary vote in the suburban seats supposed to be ‘safe’ must terrify the party’s campaign strategists.

Take Sydney’s Werriwa, once held by Labor leaders Gough Whitlam and Mark Latham.

In 2022 the ALP’s primary vote there was more than 9 points ahead of the Liberals.

According to this analysis, today, despite only a small change to its margin from the recent boundary change, the Liberals have pulled ahead of Labor by 1 per cent on primary.

There has been an even bigger change in the Victorian seat of Hawke which shows just how on the nose Labor is in the state it depends upon more than any other to get it to government.

Two years ago in the outer northwest Melbourne seat, Labor was more than 10 per cent ahead of the Liberals on primary.

Today it trails by 5 per cent.

The decline of Labor primary vote in its heartland outer suburban seats is not a new phenomenon of course.

In eight years Brendan O’Connor’s primary vote in Gorton in Melbourne’s north went from 62 per cent to 41 and is now 40 per cent according to RedBridge.

But until now the Liberals have been waiting for a leader who could capitalise on the growing disillusionment with Labor from these sorts of voters and turn it into victories.

It looks as though in Peter Dutton, it might have found one.

Until now the election has been framed as Albo’s to lose.

This survey suggests it might actually be Dutton’s.

Originally published as Why Anthony Albanese is in deep trouble at next federal election