Who’s in the lead with a million votes cast? Stunning results in first election exit poll of 19 battleground seats

More than a million Australians have already voted – and our exclusive exit poll of 4000 of them across 19 critical seats gives an extraordinary insight into the likely result.

Labor is on track to retain government in nine days, based on the first real votes cast across 19 battleground seats this election.

An exclusive exit poll of nearly 4000 Australians who cast their ballot in the last two days shows a 4.6 per cent primary swing to Labor compared to the 2022 election – with the party on track to hold on to most of its marginal seats while making gains in Queensland.

Across the 19 electorates in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, the Coalition’s primary vote is at 38.5 per cent compared with Labor’s 37.2 per cent.

The Greens stand on 11.7 per cent – a stable result compared to 2022 – while One Nation was on 2.5 per cent and all others including Teals, independents and small fringe parties taking 10.2 per cent.

By comparison, the latest Newspoll conducted between April 14 and 17 had the Coalition, Labor and the Greens at 35 per cent, 34 per cent, and 12 per cent respectively.

Support for Peter Dutton’s Coalition has risen by nearly 3 per cent since 2022, but the Opposition will need to make up significant ground in the dying days of the campaign in order to pick up target seats like Bennelong, Ryan, Chisholm, and Boothby.

The exit poll by this masthead and its sister publications interstate involved speaking to about 200 voters in each of the 19 seats over two days of early voting.

The results show Australians are sticking with the status quo – a Labor government, with a similar sized crossbench filled with Greens and Teal independents.

But there will be seats that change hands, with the exit poll showing the Liberals on track to lose Bradfield to Teal-independent Nicolette Boele, Labor to pick up Leichhardt from the LNP while losing Corangamite to the Liberals.

Others remain too close to call, with the future of Teal-independent Zoe Daniel in doubt in Goldstein (VIC), and Labor’s fate in Solomon (NT) and Paterson (NSW) under a cloud as popular independents enter the fray for the first time.

A Coalition and Labor source both agreed Gilmore, on the New South Wales south coast, was leaning toward a Liberal gain according to internal research, while Corangamite was closer than the exit poll suggested.

In Queensland, the exit poll shows the Greens increasing its primary vote in Griffith and in the leafy suburban seat of Ryan.

But Max Chandler-Mather’s future in Griffith will be dependent on how the preferences fall, with his large 10 per cent margin caused by Labor coming third in the seat in 2022.

The exit poll has Labor’s Renee Coffey in second place, laying the ground for a closer than expected fight similar to what happened in the overlapping state electorate of South Brisbane at the October election.

A Coalition source said internal party research had Ryan as a 50-50 battle for the party against the Greens, while the exit poll has Elizabeth Watson-Brown retaining her seat with a healthy primary vote increase.

The LNP is expected to comfortably retain the Gold Coast seat of McPherson, with the entry of a Climate-200 backed independent splitting the Greens vote according to the exit poll.

In Tasmania, former state Labor leader Rebecca White will keep Lyons for the party comfortably on the early numbers.

In South Australia, Labor is expected to retain Boothby and finally take Sturt from the Liberals – a result the polls have been tipping.

A Labor source said the party’s fate in seats like Sturt and Leichhardt would be decided in the final nine days of the campaign.

Lyn Robins, 82, said her vote for Labor in Sturt was “less a vote for them than not a vote for Liberal”, with the Tranmere resident giving her second preference to the “very impressive” independent.

In neighbouring Boothby, Patricia Broughman voted for returning Liberal candidate Nicolle Flint, describing her as “hard working” and “relentless”.

While the exit poll has Ms Flint just slightly ahead of Labor, Louise Miller-Frost could be returned amid a jump in her primary vote and with the help of Greens preferences.

Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton are running out of time to sway undecided voters, with more than a million ballots already cast.

In the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, the retirement of popular LNP MP Warren Entsch appears to have propelled Labor into the box seat to take the target electorate. Labor’s primary vote there stands at 36.5 per cent, ahead of the LNP’s 33 per cent.

Truck driver Shar Handisides from Trinity Beach in Cairns voted to give Labor another term saying they had “done a wonderful job so far” on housing and protecting the Great Barrier Reef.

But disability support worker Shannon Beu, from Cairns, said her vote would go to the LNP in a bid to bring down rising living expenses. “I liked what Peter Dutton had to offer in terms of tackling cost of living,” she said.

Already a million Australians have voted early in just the first two days, the Australian Electoral Commission has confirmed – leaving the parties little time to sway soft and undecided voters yet to submit a ballot.

Originally published as Who’s in the lead with a million votes cast? Stunning results in first election exit poll of 19 battleground seats