Shock new poll that could see Peter Dutton win the federal election
Shortly before the Prime Minister announced Australians will head to a federal election, new research laid out the challenge ahead.
Federal Election
Don't miss out on the headlines from Federal Election. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Australian voters have declared they are worse off after three years of Anthony Albanese’s leadership in a shock new poll that could hold the key to the federal election.
The Prime Minister left to visit the Governor-General on Friday morning around 7am to call the election for May 3.
But new research has laid out the challenge ahead.
Despite finding that the Prime Minister starts the race with his nose in front of Peter Dutton with 51 to 49 per cent on a two party preferred basis, voters have unleashed over cost of living.
The new Redbridge poll, published exclusively by news.com.au, finds that most voters believe they are worse off.
The question that could hold the key to the election
Asked the question, “Has the Federal Government done anything to improve voters’ lives?”, the vast majority of voters answered in the negative.
Only 29 per cent of voters could name something that the Federal Government has done since Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was elected that has “made their life better in any way.”
The majority of voters - 54 per cent - could not name a single measure that had improved their lives.
One in three voters could identify a positive.
Of those one in three, 36 per cent said the government’s $300 energy rebate was positive.
This outcome is clearly reflected in the ALP’s private polling and the decision of Treasurer Jim Chalmers to extend the rebate for six months offering another $150 rebate until the end of the year, one of the big cost-of-living measures in this week’s budget.
Voters name energy rebate as plus
Redbridge pollster Shaun Ratcliff said the results of the energy rebate extension was front and centre in the budget.
Peter Dutton has vowed to match the pledge to extend the rebate for six months.
The Liberals will impose an east coast gas reservation regime to drive down energy prices.
Voters in the Redbridge poll were asked to give free text responses unguided by the pollsters in identifying positives.
“The electricity rebate at the top just blows everything else away,’’ Mr Ratcliff said.
“It’s all about asking what have they done to make peoples’ lives financially better.”
Another 11 per cent of voters identified healthcare including changes to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.
The same number of voters listed tax cuts as a positive for Labor with 5 per cent of voters mentioning HECS relief.
The other issue identified by voters - albeit by a tiny 1 per cent was “cleaning up Liberal mess” and “getting rid of Scott Morrison”.
Beyond that 4 per cent of voters mentioned pension increases and 2 per cent mentioned childcare changes.
The Redbridge poll involved 2039 respondents aged 18 and older who are enrolled to vote. They were recruited to fill quotas based on age, gender, electoral division and education.
Peter Dutton’s pathway to surprise victory
The intriguing findings outline the pathway that could lead the Liberal Party to a surprise election victory.
In the Liberal leader’s budget reply speech overnight he picked up on voter dissatisfaction urging them to make a change.
“Soon, you will have a say in determining the future of our great country,’’ Mr Dutton said.
“In my travels across the country, Australians tell me they’re working hard, but they’re not getting ahead.
“In Perth, a mum in a grocery store, in tears, told me how her, her husband and children couldn’t keep their heads above water with the bills stacking up.
“In Adelaide, I spoke with a food manufacturer whose electricity prices had gone up by about 300 per cent.
“In Victoria, I spoke with a supermarket employee – a woman in her 60s – who had a machete held against her throat during a robbery.
“In Brisbane, I listened to a young couple in their 30s who have moved back in with their parents because they simply can’t buy a home – even though both of them are working overtime.
“Stories of rent and mortgage stress. Stories of power, shopping, and insurance bills going through the roof.
“Stories of home ownership being out of reach for so many. Stories of it being increasingly difficult to see and to afford a GP.
“The truth is, Australians can’t afford three more years of the Albanese Government.”
Peter Dutton has ruled out offering income tax cuts.
Overnight, the Liberal leader outlined his big election gamble, declaring his fuel excise plan and push to tackle cost of living by slashing migration as a better deal for families.
The Liberal leader is proposing to halve fuel excise for 12 months to deliver immediate relief to families at a cost of $6 billion.
But he’s sticking to his guns on tax, confirming he will not only repeal Labor’s $5-a-week top up tax cuts but won’t offer any new tax cuts of his own.
“I would love to introduce tax reform and tax cuts, but the Labor Party has racked up what we now see in the Budget papers of about $1.2 trillion of debt,’’ Mr Dutton said.
“So we have to be realistic and understand the constraints that we have. Now, the government put forward a plan which has relief for people who are really doing it hard now which starts in 15 months. It’s about 70 cents a day.”
Mr Dutton confirmed on Thursday that if elected he will repeal Labor’s $17 billion top up tax cut which will offer workers $268 in relief in the first year and $500 in the second on an ongoing basis.
Housing and migration
Slashing the migration program is the centrepiece of Mr Dutton’s new plan to tackle the housing crisis – along with allowing workers to cash in their superannuation for a $50,000 deposit top-up.
“I don’t want young Australians locked out of the property market – or having to rely on the bank of mum and dad,” Mr Dutton said.
“I want to see fewer Australians homeless and more Australians in homes.
“Under Labor, migration will continue to put pressure on housing, infrastructure, and services.
“But under the Coalition, we will cut the migration intake to free up housing and restore the great Australian dream of home ownership.
“We will cut the permanent migration program by 25 per cent. We will ban foreign investors and temporary residents from purchasing existing Australian homes for two years.
“We will set stricter caps on foreign students to relieve stress on rental markets.
“And we will allow first home buyers to access up to $50,000 of their super for a home deposit.”
Scare campaign on Medicare
Accusing the Albanese Government of “smears and scare campaigns” over Medicare, Mr Dutton said he was committed to improving bulk billing.
“There’s no greater sign of the Albanese Government’s desperation than its Mediscare campaign – Labor’s third attempt in less than a decade,” he said.
“But while Labor peddles falsehoods, we will remind Australians of the facts.
“On this Government’s watch, bulk billing nationally has fallen by 11 per cent.
“We will invest $9 billion into health.
“Tonight, I announce that a Dutton Coalition Government will invest an additional $400 million into youth mental health services.”
Social cohesion, crime and national security
Mr Dutton said Australians “tell me they’ve never been more worried about crime and division.”
“It started with the Prime Minister’s Voice referendum, which sought to divide our country by ancestry and race,’’ he said.
“He then left a vacuum of leadership following the crime wave in Alice Springs and the antisemitism on the steps of the Sydney Opera House.
“All too often, this Prime Minister is too weak, too late, and too equivocal. This Government has released 300 hardcore criminals from immigration detention into the community – with more than a third having reoffended.
“We will again stop the boats – just as we did in 2013.”
Petrol excise cuts under Peter Dutton
A household with one vehicle filling up once a week will save around $14 a week, according to the Liberal Party – an average benefit of around $700-$750 over 12 months (based on a 55-litre tank).
For households with two cars who fill up once a week, they will save around $28 a week on average – or close to $1500 over 12 months.
“The commute to work, taking the kids to school or sport, the family drive, or the trip to the shops will all cost less under the Coalition,” Mr Dutton said.
Mr Dutton pledged that the legislation enacting the excise cut would be introduced on the first sitting day of the next parliament, allowing the cut to come into effect as quickly as possible.
The Morrison Government was the last to offer a pre-election fuel excise cut in 2022, but it wasn’t enough to win the election.
Originally published as Shock new poll that could see Peter Dutton win the federal election
PM’s whopping new $200 million promise
The PM is unleashing a big new chunk of spending as he shifts his focus in the election campaign to another city – and another attack line.
Read more
Dutton’s mosque visit ‘not an endorsement’: Muslim leaders
Leaders of a mosque visited by Peter Dutton say they have ‘deep concerns’ over his previous comments, in a blow to his attempts to win over southwest Sydney voters.
Read more
Newspoll: Thumbs up for Labor despite damning budget opinion
The latest Newspoll shows Prime Minster Anthony has nosed ahead in the election race, but voters were scathing about last week’s budget. See what they thought.
Read more
Labor takes early lead despite backlash over Chalmers’ budget
Labor has taken an early lead over the Coalition despite poor ratings for last week’s budget, according to the first Newspoll of the campaign.
Read more
New poll predicts big name MPs will lose seats
A new poll shows the “most likely” result and which seats are set to see major changes, with several well-known incumbent members in danger of being replaced.
Read more
Poll surprise for Albo on election trail
The first polls of the election campaign have been released, showing it’s a very tight race but with one party just in front – but it’s not all good news.
Read more