Peter Dutton at risk of losing his own seat according to shock poll

A shock new poll had predicted the worst for Peter Dutton in his own electorate of Dickson.

EXCLUSIVE
New polling has predicted Peter Dutton could be in strife in his own electorate in Dickson as Labor and independents pour money into delivering a shock result.

News.com.au has obtained new research commissioned by the Queensland Conservation Council that suggests a Melbourne Cup field of Labor, the Greens, and an Independent draw voters away from the Liberal leader.

Mr Dutton holds the seat by a margin of just 1.7 per cent and previously won the seat by just 3,500 votes.

The UComms poll, commissioned by Queensland Conservation Council, shows Labor’s Ali France ahead of Mr Dutton 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis.

Labor is in the lead. Picture: uComms

New polls have revealed shock results for Dutton. Picture: uComms

And nearly half of all voters - 46.7 per cent - say they were less likely to vote for him due to his controversial nuclear energy policy.

“Peter Dutton’s plan to put toxic, expensive nuclear reactors in Australian communities has well and truly backfired, and may end up costing him his seat,’’ Queensland Conservation Council director Dave Copeman said.

“These results send a clear message that Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy is a major liability for the Liberal Party, and disastrous for himself as a candidate.

“Peter Dutton needs to read the room, and he’s running out of time before he finds out the hard way what his constituents think of his disastrous nuclear energy policy.”

The Liberals meanwhile have rubbished the new polling, insisting their own internal polls suggest that Mr Dutton is safe.

The polls could mean bad news for Dutton. Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

PM’s plot to win Dickson

Anthony Albanese first let slip he thought Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson was “winnable” for the Labor Party just days after he called the election.

It was even the Prime Minister’s cheeky first official stop on the election campaign after he called the election in late March.

The Liberal leader’s electorate is the most marginal in Queensland at 1.7 per cent, and just 3,363 votes secured Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s re-election in 2022.

As he arrived at the ABC’s studios to tape Insiders on the Sunday after he called the election, the Prime Minister was talking up the prospects of Labor candidate Ali France pulling off the unthinkable - kicking the Liberal leader out of Parliament.

There were 854 members polled across Dickson. Picture: uComms

Whether it’s real or just a psych op designed to keep Peter Dutton nervous, the Labor Party is ramping up spending in the electorate as a new poll suggests it’s up for grabs.

Labor shovels in the cash

Labor now claims it’s pouring $130,000 into campaigning in Peter Dutton’s own electorate and boosting the chances of Ali France, who has now run in the seat three times.

In an email to voters from national secretary Paul Erickson has urged supporters to dig deep.

“It’s not just that Peter Dutton is absent. It’s not just that he fled to Sydney during the cyclone,” the email said, referring to Mr Dutton’s trip for a fundraiser event as his electorate was bunkering down for Cyclone Alfred.

“They have serious concerns about the cuts he will make to pay for his $600b nuclear scheme. We know our message is working, it’s already shifting votes.”

“We can amplify our campaign and dump Dutton from Dickson once and for all”.

Dutton could lose his own seat in Dickson. Picture: uComms

Independent candidate Ellie Smith

Complicating matters on the ground, Dickson is a three-cornered contest with community Independent Candidate for Dickson Ellie Smith also in the race.

“Peter Dutton has been the Member for Dickson for 24 years now, and for the last couple of years he has been completely absent,’’ she told news.com.au.

“And people are noticing.

“There was a lot of attention on him when he left here before the cyclone to go to Sydney for his fundraiser, but really, it’s a pattern of behaviour for him.

Dutton in Perth during the 2025 campaign trail. Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

“Now we’re seeing a real momentum shift on the ground here in Dickson and that’s probably starting to reflect in polling.

“I think the result in Dickson is going to be close, but we know that the best chance to bring change is with a Community backed Independent - not Labor.

“Peter Dutton obviously sees that too. He’s just dropped $40,000 on attack ads and billboards against me in Dickson.

“He took down his own photo on a billboard and replaced it with an attack on me.

“It’s this sort of negative behaviour that’s driving people away from the major parties.

“It is just driving more people to our campaign to get change in Dickson.”

Originally published as Peter Dutton at risk of losing his own seat according to shock poll