If Peter Dutton gets kicked out of his own seat, who would be the new leader of the Liberal Party?
Peter Dutton’s future is on the line, with his own Queensland seat at risk. If he were to get the boot, here are the top candidates primed to step up as Liberals leader.
Federal Election
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Peter Dutton’s political future is on the line, with the results of Saturday’s election set to determine whether he will remain Liberal leader.
Mr Dutton, who had a tilt at the leadership during the 2018 leadership spill, was the obvious replacement to Scott Morrison following the 2022 election loss.
Mr Morrison was not liked among female voters. But the party believed Mr Dutton’s persona as a “strong” leader was attractive, dismissing concerns that he was not popular in Victoria where the party desperately needed to reclaim ground following a shocking result in 2022.
Mr Dutton always faced an uphill battle, needing to win 21 seats to form a majority government.
So what happens if he doesn’t get all the way?
If Mr Dutton loses the election on Saturday night, his future will hinge on the numbers and party room’s confidence in his leadership.
If he makes substantial gains, like when Tony Abbott won 72 seats in the 2010 hung parliament, he will secure a second term as Opposition leader.
If it’s only a little bit, or in a shocking turn of events the party goes further backwards – he is gone.
And the magic number? That will only be determined as the results become clear on the night.
It is standard procedure for the leadership to be automatically spilt at the first party room meeting following the election.
If Mr Dutton is on chopping block, potential candidates include:
*ANGUS TAYLOR (OPPOSITION TREASURY SPOKESMAN)
Angus Taylor has long had ambitions for the top job and has economic credentials party’s shadow treasurer.
Raised in rural NSW, Taylor – who turns 59 in September – has been a member of parliament since 2013, representing the seat of Hume.
After graduating from the University of Sydney, he went on to attend New College, Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar.
Taylor became an assistant minister in the Turnbull government in 2015 before being promoted to Minister for Law Enforcement and Cybersecurity in 2017.
He has subsequently been Minister for Energy (2018–2019), Energy and Emissions Reduction (2019–2021), and Industry, Energy and Emissions Reduction (2021–2022).
He supported Peter Dutton in the 2018 Liberal leadership spills and is a member of the National Right faction.
*SUSSAN LEY (DEPUTY LIBERAL LEADER)
Sussan Ley is a senior female in the Liberal ranks and is Mr Dutton’s deputy.
Deputy leader since 2022, Ley has been MP for the NSW seat of Farrer since 2001, serving as a cabinet minister in the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments.
Turning 64 in December, the one-time commercial pilot was born in Nigeria to English parents and grew up in the UAE and England before moving to Australia in her teens.
She has previously been Assistant Minister for Education (2013–2014), Minister for Health (2014–2016), Sport (2014–2017), Aged Care (2015–2016), and Health and Aged Care (2016–2017) but resigned from the ministry in January 2017 after a controversy over her travel expense claims.
However she returned in August 2018 when Scott Morrison succeeded Malcolm Turnbull as prime minister.
*ANDREW HASTIE (OPPOSITION DEFENCE SPOKESMAN)
Andrew Hastie, a former special forces soldier, is a rising star of the party that has been touted as a future leader.
The former military officer has been MP for the Division of Canning in WA since winning the 2015 by-election.
Hastie, who turns 43 in September, attended The Scots College in Sydney before setting his sights on becoming a journalist.
He started a Bachelor of Arts in History, Politics and Philosophy at the Kensington Campus of University of NSW in 2001 before transferring to the Australian Defence Force Academy in Canberra in 2003.
Since joining the Turnbull government in 2015, Hastie has sparked controversies over a 2019 newspaper column criticising China, as well as his recent claims women shouldn’t serve on the front lines in active duty.
*DAN TEHAN (OPPOSITION IMMIGRATION SPOKESMAN)
Dan Tehan is a senior Liberal from Victoria who has experience as a cabinet minister in several key portfolios.
The 57-year-old was born in Melbourne and comes from a political family; his mother was elected to the parliament of Victoria in 1987, while his father was a country vice-president of the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division).
Tehan was elected to the House of Representatives in 2010 in the Division of Wannon.
In 2015 Tehan supported then PM Tony Abbott in the lead-up to the leadership spill but would go on to serve as Minister for Veterans’ Affairs, the Minister for Defence Materiel in the Tunbull government.
After holding several portfolios, he was given the immigration and citizenship role in Peter Dutton’s shadow cabinet in 2022.
PETER DUTTON’S LIFE AND CAREER
November 18, 1970: Born in Brisbane and raised in the northern suburb of Boondall, Dutton is the eldest of five children to mother Ailsa Leitch and father Bruce Dutton
1988: Joins the Young Liberals and within two years becomes chair of the Bayside Young Liberals branch
1989: Runs as a 19-year-old in the Queensland state election against Tom Burns, a former state Labor leader, in the safe Labor seat of Lytton
1990: Graduates from the Queensland Police Academy, working as an officer for nearly a decade
1992: Marries for the first time but the marriage ends after a couple of months
2001: Wins Liberal preselection in the seat of Dickson in Brisbane, before being elected to the House of Representatives at the federal election at age 30
2002: His eldest child, a daughter, is born to another partner
2003: Marries second wife Kirilly (nee Brumby), going on to have two sons
2004: Is appointed Minister for Workforce Participation in the Howard government
2007: Following the 2007 election, Dutton is promoted to shadow cabinet by new Liberal leader Brendan Nelson
2013: Retains his seat at the election and is appointed to the new ministry of Tony Abbott as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport
2017: Appointed Minister for Home Affairs in a major restructure of cabinet
2022: Promoted to leader of the Coalition after Scott Morrison’s resignation following the election defeat
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