‘Clear favourite’: Betting markets tip Labor to win federal election

Albo and Dutton haven’t even hit the campaign trail, but betting agencies have already set a “clear favourite” as to who will be our next prime minister.

Betting agencies have already set a “clear favourite” as to who will be Australia’s next Prime Minister, even before the official federal election campaign kicks off.

Stealing the thunder from Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s budget reply, Mr Albanese has called the election this morning for May 3.

And while each leader will spend the next five weeks trying to convince as many Australians as they can to pick their party at the ballot box, it seems punters have just about made up their minds.

Though betting markets in November tipped the Coalition to win the election, their fortunes have shifted. At the time of writing, both Sportsbet’s and TAB’s markets are favouring Labor to form the next government, at $1.72 and $1.75 respectively over Liberal at $2.10 and $2.05.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: NewsWire/Philip Gostelow

Sportsbet’s markets are favouring a Labor minority government over a majority – the Prime Minister’s stated goal, $2.20 to $6. A Liberal minority is paying $3.30, while a majority is paying $5.

TAB’s markets also favour a Labor minority over a majority, $2.20 to $5.75. A Liberal minority is paying $3.40, while a majority is paying $4.65.

Betting odds for federal election winner, as of Friday March 28:

TAB: Labor $1.75; Coalition $2.05; other $101

Sportsbet: Labor $1.80; Coalition $2.10; other $81

Ladbrokes: Labor $1.65 Coalition $2.10; other $151

UNIBET: Labor $1.80; Coalition $2; other $101

Pointsbet: Labor $1.73; Coalition $2.10; other $251

Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton. Picture: NewsWire/Brenton Edwards

A TAB spokesperson told news.com.au there had been a “betting plunge on Labor” in the lead-up – and now aftermath – of this week’s budget.

“Punters are growing more and more confident of Labor retaining government,” they said.

“Labor is now clear favourite to win the election for the first time since November.

“The coalition had held favouritism for the last 5 months, but that has all changed this week. 70 per cent of bets since the budget have been for the Labor Party. It’s the shortest price Labor have been since October last year.

“Peter Dutton was the firm favourite to become Prime Minister, but the markets have moved substantially after a bumpy month.

“A week is a long time in politics though and we have seen the Coalition shorten from $2.15 to $2.05 after Mr Dutton announced plans to halve the fuel excise.”

Per The Australian’s latest Newspoll, the Coalition leads Labor 39 per cent to 32 per cent in the primary vote. Asked who would make the better Prime Minister, however, Mr Albanese was nearly 10 per cent ahead of Mr Dutton, 47 per cent to 38 per cent.

There is some debate as to which of the two predictors – punters or opinion polls – are more authoritative and accurate. Picture: Roni Bintang/Getty Images

There is some debate as to which of the two predictors – punters or opinion polls – are more authoritative and accurate. In his 2015 book The Luck of Politics, then-academic and current sitting Labor MP, Dr Andrew Leigh, said that punters can hold their own against opinion polls.

“Every time, betting markets have been found to perform at least as well, and usually better than, the polls,” he wrote.

Psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham told Crikey earlier this year that although betting odds were “overrated” and often unreliable, “they are interesting to keep an eye on, particularly for things where you don’t have anything else concrete”.

“There are some people out there who have this belief that the market never lies, but this belief persists no matter how many times it is proven to be false,” Dr Bonham said, referring to the 2019 poll when then-Labor leader Bill Shorten lost the “unlosable election” to Scott Morrison.

In that instance, Sportsbet had to fork out $5.2 million after mistakenly calling a Labor win two days before the election was ultimately called in favour of the Coalition.

Originally published as ‘Clear favourite’: Betting markets tip Labor to win federal election