Revealed: The shock outcome in Gaven as voters go to the polls in state election 2024

Who will win Saturday’s state poll? Here’s our political editors predictions, including the future job promotions for the winners.

Who will win Saturday’s state poll? We bring you the ultimate punter’s guide for all Gold Coast seats based on pre-polling and feedback from party strategists and booth campaigners – it even includes the future job promotions for the winners.

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Where to vote: Gold Coast state election polling locations

COOMERA

Michael Crandon, the LNP member for Coomera.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Michael Crandon, LNP, 1.1 per cent.

Chris Johnson (Labor), Nick Muir (One Nation) Stuart Fletcher (Greens) and Suzette Luyken (Legalise Cannabis Queensland).

Affectionately known as “Crando”, this much-loved older stallion from the Coomera paddock first won this most northern Coast electorate in 2009, which Labor believed would be one of theirs. His supporters say this will be his last run, remaining on the backbench in an LNP Government, where he will continue to be vocal, fighting for M1 and Coomera Connector upgrades along with fast tracking hospital facilities in the Coast’s fastest growing electorate. Will increase his margin but expect to see some late strong support for One Nation’s Nick Muir after being highly visible – “roadsiding” with his team signage at gridlocked roundabouts.

THEODORE

Mark Boothman, LNP member for Theodore.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Mark Boothman, LNP, 3.3 per cent.

Rita Anwari (Labor) Cassandra Duffill (One Nation) Andrew Stimpson (Greens).

Some speculation that Mark Boothman would to stand down before this election. Regarded as a “genuine, hard working guy who doesn’t play politics” – he was encouraged to run again and put off retiring to rural acreage to take up fruit farming. Will remain a backbencher. He will increase his margin in a northern seat which in future, due to massive infill townhouse development, will become safe for Labor after the 2024 political storm passes.

GAVEN

Meaghan Scanlon, Housing Minister and Member for Gaven.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Meaghan Scanlon, Labor, 7.8 per cent.

Bianca Stone (LNP) Sally Spain (Greens) Sandy Roach (One Nation) Jenelle Porter (Legalise Cannabis Queensland).

Impossible to call – ask either side of politics and you will get the same answer. It will go down to preferences with the winner to be announced after days and possibly weeks of counting. The statewide swing against Labor is expected to be eight to 10 per cent. Former Sunrise reporter Bianca Stone has been a formidable opponent, praised by LNP members. But Ms Scanlon’s work ethic and constant communication with her electorate gives her a personal vote of between four to five per cent. Greens candidate Sally Spain is a veteran Coast environmental leader, and her preferences to Labor will be the key – she is saying that at pre-poll. If Ms Scanlon is returned, but not in government as predicted, then the road forward for a Labor revival in four years will be her becoming the Opposition Coast spokesperson.

MUDGEERABA

Ros Bates, LNP member for Mudgeeraba.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Ros Bates, LNP, 10.1 per cent.

Sophie Lynch (Labor) Scott Turner (Greens) Carl Mocnik (One Nation).

Ros Bates is the LNP’s toughest campaigner and their most outspoken frontbencher in the parliament. Just ask potential future Labor leader Shannon Fentiman. Ms Bates prolonged parliamentary attacks saw her removed as Child Safety Minister. This race in her hinterland home track will be won early. Her hard working and lengthy political career has been all about reaching this moment – a former nurse becoming a Health Minister, and upon given that portfolio she will work fast on her reform program.

BROADWATER

Queensland LNP leader and Broadwater MP David Crisafulli speaking at on the parliament Green with victims of crime in attendance. Picture David Clark.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: David Crisafulli, LNP, 16.6 per cent.

Tamika Hicks (Labor) Steven Whitehead (One Nation) Simon Margan (Greens)

Peter Edwards (Family First).

Opposition leader David Crisafulli will be in Brisbane on Saturday night – he could be the next Premier. His Broadwater members have postponed celebrations with him until their Christmas party. Labor’s Tamika Hicks has a strong support base. Despite having moved his family to a leafy inner Brisbane suburb, members say Mr Crisafulli has “done the work” in his Coast electorate. His margin here could be increased to beyond 20 per cent.

BONNEY

Bonney LNP MP Sam O'Connor.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Sam O’Connor, LNP, 1.7 per cent.

Kyle Kelly-Collins (Labor) Scott Philip (One Nation) Amin Javanmard (Greens).

This was supposed to be a Labor seat but Mr O’Connor has made it his own. As an Opposition backbencher, he’s enjoyed a lot of political freedom – he’s the only Queensland conservative party member to publicly support The Voice to parliament referendum. As LNP environment spokesperson, he has been protective of sand banks in the Broadwater. Older colleagues would prefer them dredged for a cruise ship terminal. He will secure a strong personal vote here, like Ms Scanlon, for his work in the electorate. If the LNP wins government, can expect a ministry – and will be more green in Environment than others.

SURFERS PARADISE

John-Paul Langbroek, the LNP member for Surfers Paradise.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: John-Paul Langbroek, LNP, 16.2 per cent.

James Knight (Labor) Steven Everson (Greens) Mark Jaric (One Nation).

Labor’s James Knight is a young university student working in a cafe. He’s at the longest betting odds in the state to beat a former LNP leader in Queensland’s safest seat. But he was impressive speaking at the Central Chamber of Commerce candidate event and will be one to watch in Labor ranks in the future. Organisers noted that “JP” missed that start. But he has, as always, been a strong team player working up a sweat helping Bianca Stone in Nerang. He will get a ministry and is strongly tipped to be Sports and Racing Minister in a Crisafulli Government. LNP members cheekily add that he will feel right at home in that portfolio.

SOUTHPORT

Rob Molhoek, the LNP member for Southport.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Rob Molhoek, LNP, 5.4 per cent.

Letitia del Fabbro (Labor) David Vaughan (One Nation) Ruth Fea (Family First) Mitch McCausland (Greens).

Rob Molhoek has already run the most incredible race of his life. He has nothing to prove to anyone or himself. He’s made a remarkable recovery from a stroke, and at 64 this setback has given him a renewed focus on delivering improved health outcomes by funding research for those with brain injuries. His parliamentary committee work, particularly in welfare and for the homeless, will be invaluable in a new government. His support base crosses all party lines.

MERMAID BEACH

Ray Stevens, the LNP member for Mermaid Beach.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Ray Stevens, LNP, 4.4 per cent.

Joseph Shiels (Labor) Lucy Carra-Schulz (Greens) Roger Marquass (One Nation) Clare Todd (Family First).

A veteran who has run more races than any other Coast politician. Loves the track. But many party members thought “Mermaid Ray” would not contest this poll, leaving the door open for Robina councillor Hermann Vorster (see Burleigh) to be handed his safe “blue” seat. But he is here for one last dance at the poll – okay, let’s not go back there. Post-politics the next stop always remains the possibility of a step-up to Skyride, the long-planned hinterland cableway.

BURLEIGH

Hermann Vorster, the LNP candidate for Burleigh in the 2024 State poll.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Michael Hart (retiring), LNP, 1.2 per cent.

Hermann Vorster (LNP) Claire Carlin (Labor) Hunter Grove-McGrath (Greens) Cathy Osborne (Libertarian Party) Jason Gann (Legalise Cannabis Queensland) Neena Tester (Family First)

Remember, Mr Hart made a $20,000 donation to the LNP in the last campaign, bumped up his profile as he faced a tough fight with Labor preselecting legendary surfer Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew. After his retirement was announced, Mr Vorster was preselected, being highly regarded by his party leader. He did not contest the council election in March, and the young father has chosen to be out of work and doorknock the electorate during the past year. This commitment will ensure he makes what could have been a Labor seat a safe one for the LNP. Could gain promotion to a junior ministry if a senior appointment fails in an LNP first term.

CURRUMBIN

Laura Gerber, the Currumbin MP and Shadow Minister for Youth Justice. Picture: Liam Kidston.

CURRENTLY HELD BY: Laura Gerber, LNP, 0.5 per cent.

Nathan Fleury (Labor) Braden Smith (Greens) Angela Gunson (One Nation)

Kath Down (Independent).

As the Shadow Minister for Youth Justice and Victim Support, Laura Gerber’s profile has grown on the back of the state’s juvenile crime wave. She has won rave reviews from party powerbrokers. If the LNP wins, she will be the Youth Justice Minister. The big interest in this race will be the performance of independent Kath Down, fresh from a council poll and the most outspoken community leader opposed to light rail. Stage 4 of the trams from Burleigh to the Gold Coast Airport will be reviewed by a Crisafulli Government. That decision will be the ultimate legacy for Ms Gerber in her southern electorate – whatever way it plays out.

MAIN RACE: PREMIER OF QUEENSLAND.

Premier Steven Miles and LNP leader David Crisafulli during the Sky News and The Courier Mail People’s Forum at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. pic: Lyndon Mechielsen/Courier Mail.

LNP David Crisafulli (Opposition leader) $1.08. Labor Steven Miles (Premier) $8.50.

Here’s the race call.

“It’s a really late start for Steven Miles after Annastacia Palaszczuk retired. She was really on the nose with older ALP punters. But these younger folks at the track, they seem to like Miles – or at least his TikTok videos. He certainly looks strong and fit. Turning the final corner and Crisafulli in the lead looks back, for the first time, sees the Miles’ smile and – oh dear – Crisafulli stumbles. He’s backed by the bookies, he can’t possibly lose the unlosable race can he? Where at the line – wow, that’s a lot closer than expected. Photo please.”

Now remember to vote – and please, gamble responsibly. For biographies on all the candidates go the Bulletin’s coverage – and enjoy our race day blog.

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Originally published as Revealed: The shock outcome in Gaven as voters go to the polls in state election 2024