Analysis: Liberal HQ must take responsibility for local results following campaign shocker

It is a devastating result for the Liberal Party in Corangamite, which at the very least would have been hoping to cut the almost 8 per cent margin in half. But any blame for the result should be directed at Liberal HQ, not Darcy Dunstan.

It was Libby Coker and Richard Marles who were celebrating Saturday night. Picture: Alan Barber.

Even the most optimistic Labor supporter could not have seen this coming.

Particularly when the polls – both local and national – showed all the momentum was with the Coalition heading into the Christmas break.

At the time, bookies across the board favoured a Liberal victory that would have seen Prime Minister Anthony Albanese oversee the first one-term federal government in almost a century.

Some Labor supporters privately expressed fear that Corangamite could be lost to a Liberal candidate whose political inexperience and relative youth was seen by party strategists as a distinct advantage.

Such fears, it turns out, were unfounded.

Not only has Libby Coker made history by becoming the first Labor MP to win Corangamite three times, she has, for the time being at least, increased her margin.

It is a devastating result for the Liberal Party, which at the very least would have been hoping to cut the almost 8 per cent margin in half – a result that would give them a decent chance in 2028.

But any blame for the showing in Corangamite should be directed at Liberal HQ, not Darcy Dunstan.

The “Tradie, Soldier, Dad” ran a solid, albeit unspectacular, campaign.

How was he supposed to compete with the well-oiled and heavily resourced Labor campaign machine when he had few policies to sell?

Even when policies were put forward late in the picture, most appeared to have been made up on the run.

Early in the count on Saturday night, one local Liberal supporter perhaps summarised it best: “You can only work with what you’ve got,” they said, not in reference to the candidate, but the quality of the policy offering, or lack thereof.

Darcy Dunstan with campaign co-ordinator Irene Stokes. Picture: Alan Barber.

And while he wouldn’t admit it himself, Peter Dutton’s focus in the final week on there being too many Welcome to Country messages, as well as other issues unrelated to the bottom line of struggling households, was never going to win Dunstan any votes.

Quite the opposite

Conversely, Labor and Coker stuck to their script, succinctly promoting policies that were understood, if not entirely embraced, by the electorate.

“Once again, they (Corangamite constituents) know that it is only Labor that will look after them, that will support them in every way possible,” Coker told the adoring Labor faithful during her victory speech on Saturday night.

“We are the ones that actually make sure everybody has an opportunity to get ahead.”

Dunstan was widely viewed as a competent candidate and there’s already talk of him running in the state seat of South Barwon at next year’s state election.

Yet he’d be forgiven for passing up another opportunity unless the party can get its act together and clearly define who and what it stands for.

Because at the moment, it’s impossible to tell.

Originally published as Analysis: Liberal HQ must take responsibility for local results following campaign shocker