Queensland Health modelling predicts more than 4000 people could be hospitalised from Covid in Toowoomba

As health authorities brace for more than 80,000 cases of Covid in the Toowoomba region, Queensland Health has revealed an alarming number of people could be hospitalised as a result of the Omicron outbreak.

With the peak of Toowoomba’s Covid-19 outbreak expected to arrive from next week, modelling by Queensland Health has painted a potentially bleak outlook for the Garden City.

As the Omicron strain of the coronavirus continues to spread, health authorities anticipate about 50 per cent of the city’s population, about 85,000 people, could ultimately contract the virus.

While about 80 per cent of those infected with Covid will experience mild symptoms, around 15 per cent of the Covid-positive population will suffer more serious symptoms.

The Queensland Health modelling was provided to local governments for their disaster management and on a planning basis to inform their on the ground decision making.

The modelling estimates about five per cent of people who test positive to Covid in Toowoomba, or about 4250 people, could require hospitalisation as a result of Covid-19.

The modelling estimates Toowoomba’s outbreak would surge from the beginning of next week, with the peak to last about two weeks.

The line to wait for testing at the Baillie Henderson Hospital drive-in Covid testing site run by Darling Downs Health, Monday, December 27, 2021. Picture: Kevin Farmer

A Darling Downs Health spokeswoman said they were confident they had the necessary resources to cope with any surge in Covid numbers.

“As our chief health officer has said, we expect cases to continue to increase into late January and early February, and statewide modelling suggests we have the capacity across the public and private system to manage the surge in cases,” she said.

“Covid-19 is now widespread throughout Queensland, including in the Darling Downs region.

“We’ve been managing increased numbers in recent weeks, and we are well prepared to continue doing so.

“The vast majority of Covid-19 positive cases in Darling Downs Health are being managed while isolating at home.

“We are currently experiencing unprecedented demand for services at Toowoomba Hospital. Our staff are doing an outstanding job of providing care to our community.”

Exteriors of the Toowoomba Hospital, Toowoomba 20th September 2021 Picture David Clark

Toowoomba Regional Council Deputy Mayor Geoff McDonald urged anyone who was eligible to get their vaccine booster.

“We have and should continue to thank our health workers. The best way we can help them now is to stay out of hospital,” he said.

“Elective surgery is already impacted, we all need to do what we can to limit the impact into other chronic disease and trauma treatments.

“This is the Australian thing to do – help your mates.”

The Darling Downs Health spokeswoman said unvaccinated people were up to 24 times more likely to be admitted to intensive care as a result of Covid, compared to people who have had two doses of a vaccine and a booster.

“If you are unvaccinated, you are nine times more likely to end up in hospital than if you had received your two doses and booster shot,” the spokeswoman said.

“If it has been four months since your second dose, now is the time to get your booster.

“The vaccination clinic at Clifford Gardens is open seven days a week from 8.30am to 4pm.”

Chief health officer John Gerrard said it was critical people received their third dose – pointing to the fact just one person who’d received a booster had died with Covid-19.

Dr Gerrard revealed only one of 45 Queenslanders who had died in the latest Covid wave was triple-jabbed.

The stark warning and call to arms for Queenslanders – particularly the elderly – to get boosted comes as two people died from Covid-19 in the Darling Downs on the state’s deadliest day since the pandemic began.

“The virus does seem to be finding older people who have not received that third dose,” he said.

“Again, I would remind everyone that of the 45 deaths that we’ve had in Queensland so far, since the current wave which began on 13th of December, only one has received a vaccine booster.”

About 50 per cent of eligible Queenslanders have not yet received their booster, prompting Health Minister Yvette D’Ath and Dr Gerrard to clarify that those who have had Covid can still get the third jab as long as they’ve recovered from their symptoms.

Queensland recorded its deadliest day on Tuesday with 16 people – all over the age of 70 – losing their lives while another 15,962 cases were added to the state’s tally.

According to Queensland Health, the Darling Downs Health region has recorded 330 active Covid-19 cases, up from 267 on Monday and 313 on Tuesday, while five people have now died as a result of Covid in the region.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said 11 more Queensland residents with Covid-19 died since yesterday.

A spokesman for Harvey Normal Toowoomba said they had exhausted their supply of rapid antigen tests, and there were currently none on backorder.