Analyst’s frank fears for a once safe Far North Labor seat
A healthy margin won’t be enough to save a battling Labor minister from losing his seat this Saturday if a forecast swing to the LNP is in full effect across the Far North, a political analyst says.
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A healthy margin won’t be enough to save a battling Labor minister from losing his seat this Saturday if a forecast swing to the LNP is in full effect across the Far North, a political analyst says.
But Coalition insiders have flagged growing concerns about their candidate’s capacity to appeal to voters after running an, at times, uninspiring campaign.
Griffith University’s associate professor Dr Paul Williams said Labor looked set to lose the seat of Cairns, currently held by Tourism and Sport Minister Michael Healy, with a YouGov poll projecting a 7.7 per cent uniform swing against the government.
“I think Cairns is gone (for Labor),” Dr Williams said.
“It might be unfair on the government, because youth crime is an Australia-wide issue.
“Housing is an international issue, cost-of-living, inflation, they’re all post-Covid conditions and the only thing unique to Queensland is the rollout of Olympic infrastructure.”
As a result, several LNP candidates had been given a head start at this election, Dr Williams said, including its candidate for Cairns, Yolonde Entsch.
“The electorate is looking at Labor and voters’ lives are worse off than they were in 2020 and 2017 - things are more expensive, wages haven’t kept up, and voters just need to kick someone they think is responsible,” he said.
But LNP rank-and-file in the Far North have expressed concerns with Ms Entsch’s bid to unseat the incumbent, with her fundraising, public speaking and door knocking efforts having been questioned internally at different stages.
Compared to her main rival, Ms Entsch has also had limited engagement with the media throughout the campaign.
Saturday’s results could likely resemble the famous Campbell Newman whitewash where several regional candidates ran “small target” campaigns and were voted in, Dr Williams said.
“Look what happened in 2012,” he said.
“You had dozens of LNP candidates, chosen late in the piece, win safe Labor seats – they didn’t say or do anything.”
The LNP won a whopping 78 out of a total of 89 seats at that election.
Mr Healy holds a 5.6 per cent margin from the 2020 election.
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Originally published as Analyst’s frank fears for a once safe Far North Labor seat
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