Libs, Nats have 18 months to patch things up, expert warns

The clock is ticking for the Liberals and Nationals to make up, with an expert warning it could be fatal for the Coalition if its feud goes past a deadline.

The Liberal and National parties must resolve their differences within 18 months or risk the death of the Coalition, an expert has warned.

David Littleproud revealed on Tuesday he and Sussan Ley had failed to lock in a new Coalition agreement, saying the Liberals were on a “journey of rediscovery” and that space would give them “the opportunity to do that without the spectre of the National Party imposing their will”.

He blamed the Liberal Party for refusing to guarantee four key policies the Nationals deemed important to rural and regional Australians.

It clashed with Ms Ley’s vision of a “nothing adopted and nothing abandoned” approach to policy in the wake of the Coalition’s decimation at the federal election.

Henry Maher, a politics lecturer at the University of Sydney, told NewsWire he expected the parties to continue to co-operate “even if they don’t sit together” but that “the Liberals obviously have a lot to think about”.

Nationals leader David Littleproud and Liberal leader Sussan Ley failed to strike a new Coalition agreement. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

“If they were to go to an election campaign as two separate parties, that would be disastrous,” he said.

“All the election machinery that they have would no longer function.

“For both of them, there would be the issue of running against each other in the Senate, running against each other in more seats.

“They’re already struggling with primary vote dropping, so I think there’s just too many disincentives for them to stay apart for the term.”

The four polices the Nationals would not budge on included divestiture powers for supermarkets, nuclear power, its proposed regional Australia fund and greater telecommunications coverage.

Mr Littleproud said on Wednesday his party had fought hard to get “to a position in the last parliament that meant so much to people in regional Australia”, adding he would not be able to sleep at night “knowing that I haven’t done everything that I promised those people that I would do”.

Mr Maher said he thought the parties would be able to find common ground on most areas.

He said the Liberals would likely be fine recommitting to the proposed $20bn regional Australian fund and boosting telecoms coverage.

Nuclear would be harder, with the Nationals staunch supporters of it and the Liberals broadly indicating they were lukewarm on it.

“The nuclear policy was kind of the Band-Aid to keep them together,” Mr Maher said.

“It allowed the Nats to sign up to net zero without properly committing to renewable energy.”

But he added he “wouldn’t be surprised if the compromise ends up being that the they campaign on ending the moratorium on nuclear power, but not committing to government funding nuclear power”.

“That would function the same way as the last nuclear power policy,” he said.

“It would allow the Nats to sign on to the agreement without having to commit to renewable energy or net zero, without some kind of backup.”

But he said the main stickler for the Liberals could be divestiture powers.

“In the end, the one they won’t want to accept would be the break-up of supermarkets,” Mr Maher said.

He said a compromise could look like “a commitment to some form of breaking up supermarket power with ever actually doing it”.

“The Nats do also understand the politics of that issue that it’s very useful for them to campaign on obviously in their own electorates,” he said.

“But I think the configuration of interest groups they understand is too hard to fully push through a break-up of the supermarkets.”

Ms Ley and Mr Littleproud have both said their doors remain open to each other. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Mr Maher predicted the two parties would come together in about a year-and-a-half, saying it would give them both time “to develop policy, to gradually negotiate how they’re going to come back together” and figure out how to sell themselves to “Teal voters and to Nationals voters and to suburban voters”.

But he warned it could go the other way if it dragged on and figures in the parties “exaggerate the split”.

“If it empowers some of the people in each party who want to exaggerate the splits, then it will start to harm them,” Mr Maher said.

The Coalition’s collapse has come against a backdrop of soaring post-election tensions.

Labor’s landslide federal election victory obliterated the Liberals, with the red wave sweeping up several senior Liberal MPs, including Peter Dutton.

Meanwhile, the Nationals vote largely held.

James Paterson has publicly confirmed the Nationals’ suspicions that the Liberals were plotting to poach Jacinta Nampijinpa Price during the election.

In fact, the Liberal senator said he had been “trying to recruit Jacinta to Liberal Party for 10 years”.

Senator Price’s shock defection to the Liberal Party room came on top of revelations the senior party did not consult their Nationals colleagues on key policies before announcing them.

The Nationals have also squarely blamed the Liberals for losing Perin Davey – their former deputy leader – her Senate seat, after she was pushed to the third position on their joint ticket.

Originally published as Libs, Nats have 18 months to patch things up, expert warns