As Taiwan tensions grow, US and China seek right decibel

Chinese President Xi Jinping marks the 110th anniversary of the overthrow of the Qing Dynasty, which prompted the founding of the Republic of China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 9, 2021

As tensions flare over Taiwan, China and the United States are both trying to lay down firm markers. A crucial question is whether the nuclear-armed powers know what level of pressure is just right.

Among the slew of disputes between the world's two largest economies, Taiwan is often seen as the only one that could bring hot conflict as Beijing considers the self-ruling US-aligned democracy a province awaiting reunification.

US allies have meanwhile stepped up, with Japan resolutely backing Taiwan, including its bid to join a regional trade pact, and Australia entering the new three-way AUKUS partnership with the United States and Britain widely viewed as a response to a rising China.

"This is to tell Taiwan that no one can help them," she said. "Moves like AUKUS or Japan's statements on Taiwan -- none of this is going to change their strategic calculus."

The risk of miscalculation was recently laid bare by the top US general, Mark Milley, who testified that he called his Chinese counterpart to make clear that former president Donald Trump did not intend to attack during his turbulent final months in office.

President Joe Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, discussed Taiwan during a lengthy meeting last week in Zurich with top Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi.

Among such steps, a Pentagon official confirmed to AFP that US special operations forces have been training Taiwanese troops.

Mastro argued that such action would have little effect or even backfire as many in Beijing are convinced, despite Washington's denials, that the United States supports Taiwan's outright independence.

"Things like name changes are designed to show that the United States is willing to fight -- but in the end it just increases China's resolve."

- Calibrating message -

But some experts see Xi also calibrating his message on Taiwan.

Craig Singleton, a fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which generally advocates hawkish policies, said Xi was "unusually practical and measured" and that Washington should take notice.

Instead, the United States needs to brace for rising Chinese intimidation of Taiwan and prepare to "compete in a prolonged gray-zone war campaign," he said.

"Both sides need to recognize that they are both contributing to the slow-motion train wreck we are witnessing."

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Originally published as As Taiwan tensions grow, US and China seek right decibel