Health expert warns Australians to prepare for a triple virus surge this winter

An alarming spike in influenza has hit Australia ahead of winter, with thousands of cases and a sharp rise in deaths. But it’s not the only virus surge to prepare for.

Australians are being warned to prepare for a triple virus surge this winter, with COVID-19, influenza, and RSV already spreading rapidly, and are urged to get vaccinated before the end of May.

“We’re dealing with an early wave of a significantly infectious virus diseases,’ Professor Paul Griffin said on Wednesday, the Daily Mail reports.

“When one person brings something home, it can sweep through the whole household in days.

“The more we empower families to detect illness early, the better we can manage outbreaks and protect those most at risk.”

director of the World Health Organisation’s Melbourne-based Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza Patrick said lab-confirmed cases of the flu had soared across the country since the start of the year.

“What we’ve got here are curves for different seasons … through January, February, March, and April, we’ve actually been tracking at increased numbers,” Professor Reading said.

“You can see this kind of increasing trend in most of the jurisdictions since January, with a steady increase being observed.”

Flu deaths have spiked across Australia in 2025, well above the five-year average, prompting warnings from health leaders about low vaccination rates. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Daniel Pockett

New data shows a 65.7 per cent jump in influenza deaths in 2024 compared to the previous year, with elevated numbers continuing into early 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

There were 16 influenza-deaths recorded in January this year alone, and almost 10 times that in Covid-related deaths.

ABS figures show that both January and February this year recorded more flu deaths than the same period in most previous years, sparking fears of an early and potentially severe influenza season.

Traditionally, flu activity in Australia peaks during the winter months. However, this year’s early onset more closely resembles patterns seen in the Northern Hemisphere, including Japan, the UK, and China.

“Coming into the start of this year, so the summer in Australia, coming into autumn, we’ve actually got increased levels of influenza activity in Australia, which sort of correlates with increased activity in the Northern Hemisphere as well.”

Influenza A and B viruses are responsible for most seasonal flu outbreaks, but each year sees a different mix of subtypes, making the virus difficult to predict and control.

This year’s influenza vaccines have been updated to better target current strains, particularly the H3N2 subtype.

“The H3N2 component is kind of the problem child of the influenza vaccines,” Professor Reading said.

“It’s the one that needs updating the most to keep up with the mutations that occur in the virus as it circulates around the world.”

Australia is experiencing an unusually early spike in influenza, with over 63,000 cases and some of the highest January-February death rates in recent years, according to new data. Picture: NewsWire / John Appleyard

He also warned that influenza won’t be the only virus circulating this winter. COVID-19, RSV, norovirus, and strains of avian influenza such as H5N1 are also being closely monitored.

“In 2024, we had the first human case of H5N1 was recorded in Australia from a return traveller from India,” he said.

“That virus was detected and characterised here at our collaborating centre.”

While the avian influenza strain has raised international concern, including a significant outbreak in U.S. dairy herds, there is currently no indication of it spreading between humans.

“The virus is secreted into the milk,” Professor Reading said.

“At the moment, there have been 70 recorded human cases in the US. One death, but no evidence of person-to-person spread, which is really important.”

In January 2025 alone, there were 16 influenza-related deaths and 159 COVID-19-related deaths in Australia. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Daniel Pockett

Professor Reading stressed the importance of vaccination, which he said is the “best way” to reduce the likelihood of hospitalisation and GP visits associated with influenza infections.

Professor Julie Leask, a social scientist with the University of Sydney’s Infectious Diseases Institute, said Australia’s flu vaccination rates remain alarmingly low.

“Our influenza vaccination rates in Australia are dire and they’re not improving,” Professor Leask said.

She noted that many serious outcomes could be avoided with better uptake of the vaccine.

“The vaccine isn’t perfect, but it’s much better than zero, which is what you’re looking at if you don’t have a vaccine.”

According to new research from the 2025 National Vaccination Insights Project, which surveyed over 2000 adults in March, nearly one-third of Australians haven’t had a flu shot in the past two years.

Infectious diseases physician Dr Paul Griffin said the flu continues to take a heavy toll each year.

“We know that there’s deaths in the order of thousands, hospitalisations around 20,000 every year,” Dr Griffin said.

“It’s not just a flu, it’s a very severe viral infection in its own right and can be life threatening.”

In Australia, the National Immunisation Program provides free flu shots to several groups, including young children, pregnant women, adults 65 and older, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, and individuals with certain medical conditions.

Originally published as Health expert warns Australians to prepare for a triple virus surge this winter