Harvard’s Ben Zauzmer picks Oscar winners based on statistics

A HARVARD statistics whiz, who predicted all the 2012 Oscar winners, has given his tips for Sunday’s awards based on maths — and there are a few shocks.

BEN Zauzmer, a Harvard statistics whiz known for picking more Oscar winners every year with his mathematical model, has delivered his forecast for Sunday’s ceremony.

Mr Zauzmer, who has a 75 per cent success rate from previous years, picked all eight major categories at the 2012 Academy Awards.

How does he do it?

Mr Zauzmer tells the Boston Globe that his algorithm uses thousands of data points from Oscar ecremonies over the past two decades, such as aggregate critics scores and other award show results to predict the winners.

“For example, in the best actor category, the British equivalent of the Oscars (BAFTA), the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and a host of other organisations pick their winners. Often, these groups don’t all agree,” he said. “So, I use math to determine, based upon previous years’ results, how much we should listen to each group.”

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This year’s predictions are set to produce some surprises if Zauzmer’s maths is correct.

He believes that favourite Michael Keaton will miss out on the Best Actor award for Birdman and that the Academy will give the nod to Eddie Redmayne for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Redmayne is a 77 per cent chance, according to Zauzmer, while Keaton is lagging in second place with 13.8 per cent.

FILE - In this Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2014 file photo, Professor Stephen Hawking, right, and cast member Eddie Redmayne arrive on the blue carpet for the UK premiere of "The Theory of Everything" at the Odeon in Leicester Square, central London. In its 87th year, acting front runners for the Academy Awards are Redmayne, for his portrayal of the ALS-afflicted Hawking in “The Theory of Everything,” and Julianne Moore, a five-time nominee who is long overdue for a golden statuette, for her depiction of a woman suffering from early onset Alzheimer’s in “Still Alice.” The Oscars are presented on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2015, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Joel Ryan/Invision/AP, File)

Julianne Moore is close to a sure thing (84.4 per cent according to Zauzmer) to pick up her first Oscar in the Best Actress race for Still Alice, with Felicity Jones her nearest rival back on 6 per cent for The Theory of Everything.

This photo provided by courtesy of Sony Pictures Classics show Julianne Moore as Alice in the film, "Still Alice." Moore is nominated for an Oscar for her depiction of a woman suffering from early onset Alzheimer’s disease. The 87th annual Academy Awards are presented on Sunday, Feb. 22, 2015, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Sony Pictures Classics, Linda Kallerus)

While Boyhood scooped the Best Picture award at the Golden Globes, Zauzmer believes Birdman will take the Oscar. He rates the Michael Keaton film as a 39.9 per cent chance of winning, while Boyhood is second at 21.8 per cent. He also believes that Birdman’s director Alejandro Inarritu will be favoured over Boyhood’s director Richard Linklater.

FILE - In this Wed., Dec. 17, 2014 file photo, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, director of the film "Birdman," poses for a portrait at the Four Seasons Hotel in Los Angeles. “Birdman” is looking to drop another trophy into its nest ahead of the Academy Awards. After taking top honors from the acting and producing guilds, the film featuring Michael Keaton as a former superhero film star faces one last flight at the Directors Guild Awards on Saturday, Feb. 7, 2015, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Chris Pizzello/Invision/AP, File)

“Many smart people will pick Boyhood — it is certainly a remarkable artistic achievement, and it did win the BAFTAs and the Golden Globe for best drama. But Birdman claimed the SAG award for best cast, the Producers Guild Award (PGA), and, most importantly, the Directors Guild Award (DGA),” he said. “The last of those three has predicted 80 per cent of the last 15 best picture winners, so think long and hard before betting against Birdman.”

J.K. Simmons and Miles Teller in WHIPLASH.

There won’t be any surprises in the supporting categories, however, as Zauzmer says award season darlings JK Simmons (Whiplash) and Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) will both take home another award for their collections this year.

This image released by IFC Films shows Patricia Arquette and Ellar Coltrane in a scene from the film,"Boyhood." Arquette was nominated for a Golden Globe for best supporting actress in a drama for her role in the film on Thursday, Dec. 11, 2014. The 72nd annual Golden Globe awards will air on NBC on Sunday, Jan. 11. (AP Photo/IFC Films)

So let’s see how accurate maths is in predicting the Oscars.

Originally published as Harvard’s Ben Zauzmer picks Oscar winners based on statistics