Tony Abbott leadership challenge: the key players and what they’d have to do

PRIME Minister Tony Abbott could go the way of Kevin Rudd, turfed out in his first term before voters get their chance. Here’s how it could play out.

AUSTRALIA is facing the prospect of a third first-term Prime Minister in five years being turfed by their own party.

The unprecedented sequence of internal rebellions could see Tony Abbott join Labor’s Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard as national leaders removed by colleagues before voters have had their say at an election.

The Canning by-election next Saturday and the coyness of any challengers so far are expected to delay a showdown with Mr Abbott.

However, Parliament will not resume for three weeks — meaning Liberal MPs won’t be together again — after the coming weekend and rebels will consider acting decisively or lose momentum and opportunity.

Mr Abbott is unlikely to submit without an aggressive defence of his leadership and any contenders would need to be sure of their numbers and strike quickly when they are gathered.

Here are the key players in the drama which comes six months after Mr Abbott escaped leadership rebellion and renewed a promise of good government — a pledge many of his colleagues believe he hasn’t delivered.

KEY: THE BACK BENCH

Opinion polls have for months pointed to the Government losing at least 30 seats at an election, which would see the Coalition numbers in the House of Representatives drop from 90 to 60 and Labor to return to power. MPs in marginal and not-so marginal seats know this and their jitters and quests for self-preservation would fuel a challenge.

MALCOLM TURNBULL

The man most likely to replace Mr Abbott has said little about leadership in recent weeks and even his walks with the household dog have been monitored by reporters in case while he has a leash in his hands he breaks his silence on taking the reins of government. So far there is no public declaration he would be a candidate were the Liberal leadership declared vacant, but few believe he would turn down the opportunity if it occurred. This would mean the party would be asked to reverse the December, 2009 decision to replace Mr Turnbull with Mr Abbott.

Will he or won’t he ... The Communications Minister has refused to rule out a challenge. (AAP Image/Sam Mooy) NO ARCHIVING

SCOTT MORRISON

Social Services Minister Morrison, the man who can see boom mics invisible to his colleagues, has been head down working his portfolio all year with significant but not necessarily spectacular success. Two factors could suddenly make him Prime Minister. There is considerable hostility towards Malcolm Turnbull from the Liberals’ conservative forces and the right wing Liberal agitators in the media.

It might happen that were Mr Abbott’s prime ministership considered unsustainable, a Turnbull prime ministership would be considered unacceptable. Which might allow a Morrison rails run.

MATTHEW KEOGH

Never heard of him? Well he could play a key part in Mr Abbott’s fortunes. Mr Keogh is the Labor candidate in the by-election for Canning, the West Australian seat vacated by the death of the Liberal incumbent. Tony Abbott has said the by-election is not about him, which is clear evidence the Liberals fear it will be about him. Ipsos Fairfax opinion

polls today suggest Mr Keogh will lose on Saturday but will generate a 10 per cent swing against the Liberals, which would further damage Mr Abbott’s standing within his party. So while he might never become an MP, Mr Keogh might play a significant part in the Prime Minister’s downfall.

BILL SHORTEN

One factor helping Mr Abbott stay put is the argument Bill Shorten is unelectable. It’s a negative defence: Our bloke might be a shocker but he’s better than the alternative and will win. If something happened to weaken Mr Shorten’s standing with voters, the case for keeping Mr Abbott would be strengthened. And clearly, were Mr Shorten to become more attractive to voters, Mr Abbott would be vulnerable to attack by his own people.

THE MAN HIMSELF

There is not necessarily discontent among Liberals with the direction Tony Abbott is taking them. They just think he’s a lousy driver. After every applauded policy journey he seems destined to run off the road. A same-sex marriage vote was put off, to the delight of the

Liberal right, but Mr Abbott was clumsy doing it. The Government announced a widely endorsed intake of Syrian refugees and the cameras are on Mr Abbott laughing along to a crass joke with Immigration Minister Peter Dutton. The next election is expected in about 12 months and the debate will be whether Mr Abbott can maintain direction and improve his steering in the meantime. He has to drop the arrogance of his early leadership and convince colleagues — particularly those around him in cabinet — and the electorate he is on top of the

basics: What to do and how to do it. And he might only have days to do it.

Originally published as Tony Abbott leadership challenge: the key players and what they’d have to do