Closing Bell: ASX bets on July rate cut as employment data lands

The ASX fell 0.09pc in trade today, but positive employment data lifted the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July.

With employment data coming in within expectation, markets are betting the RBA will cut interest rates at the next meeting in July. Pic: Getty Images

• Markets pricing a 78pc chance of rate cut following labour data

• Unemployment levels remained steady

• ASX dips on broad weakness in tech, resources and healthcare stocks

The ASX ended up in negative territory this afternoon, but not by much (-0.09%). It wasn't the worst performance, considering how many headwinds global markets are dealing with at present.

There’s the lingering threat of more tariffs from the US alongside the more pointed tension between China and America, the four-year saga of the war between Ukraine and Russia, and now the Israel-Iran conflict has turned up the heat even more.

In that context, losing just 0.48% over the last five trading days doesn’t sound too bad.

Financials, and particularly the seven big banking stocks on our ASX200 Banks index, were the bright spot in today’s subdued market.

Source: Market Index

They couldn’t outweigh falls in info tech, materials, utilities and healthcare, but Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) added 1.48%, NAB (ASX:NAB) 1% and Westpac (ASX:WBC) 1.7%.

Source: Market Index

The All Ords Gold index was an anchor for the ASX, shedding 1.79% and dragging the 200 Resources and Small Ords down with it.

Bets on for July rate cut as employment remains steady

The ABS released its Labour Force Australia survey today, revealing unemployment levels have largely remained steady in May.

Looking at the seasonally adjusted numbers, both the participation and underemployment rate fell slightly, down just 0.1 point, but the overall number of unemployed people fell by about 2,600 individuals, or 0.4%.

Analysts say that’s about as expected, as the past 12 months of strong job uptake levels out to more average numbers.

"Looking ahead, the labour market's strong run over the past 12 months will slowly fade. Global uncertainty is clouding business decisions and prompting many firms to temper hiring plans," Oxford Economics Australia economist Kar Chong Low told the ABC.

Bloomberg’s numbers say traders reckon this is a green light for another interest rate cut in the RBA’s July meeting, with the market pricing a 78% chance.

Going by historical correlation, if the market sentiment stays that high right up until the meeting day, a cut is as close to certain as anything can be in this economy.

ASX SMALL CAP LEADERS

Today’s best performing small cap stocks:

Security	Name	Last	% Change	Volume	Market Cap
ATX	Amplia Therapeutics	0.23	184%	60634193	$31,424,166
PRX	Prodigy Gold NL	0.002	100%	3299814	$3,175,056
SFG	Seafarms Group Ltd	0.002	100%	191757	$4,836,599
RPG	Raptis Group Limited	0.16	67%	529504	$16,832,873
NHE	Nobleheliumlimited	0.019	58%	5390085	$7,194,300
CCO	The Calmer Co Int	0.003	50%	3661014	$6,022,707
FTC	Fintech Chain Ltd	0.003	50%	167980	$1,301,539
ALM	Alma Metals Ltd	0.004	33%	491861	$4,759,036
CTN	Catalina Resources	0.004	33%	285724	$7,278,057
SRN	Surefire Rescs NL	0.002	33%	5592144	$3,729,668
AHN	Athena Resources	0.0065	30%	10001178	$11,329,785
HPC	Thehydration	0.013	30%	2783892	$3,833,009
SCP	Scalare Partners	0.13	30%	29521	$4,183,502
CP8	Canphosphateltd	0.04	29%	234815	$9,509,576
ALR	Altairminerals	0.0025	25%	3717714	$8,593,488
AU1	The Agency Group Aus	0.02	25%	1341209	$7,033,225
OEL	Otto Energy Limited	0.005	25%	1332565	$19,180,039
OKJ	Oakajee Corp Ltd	0.02	25%	60000	$1,463,136
OMG	OMG Group Limited	0.005	25%	1318028	$2,913,180
OVT	Ovanti Limited	0.0025	25%	156524	$6,011,030
REZ	Resourc & En Grp Ltd	0.02	25%	1124092	$10,746,226
ROG	Red Sky Energy.	0.005	25%	2050000	$21,688,909
ELS	Elsight Ltd	1.335	22%	1220702	$198,097,920
IFG	Infocusgroup Hldltd	0.011	22%	12471483	$2,483,656
MQR	Marquee Resource Ltd	0.011	22%	1914418	$5,024,723

Making news…

Amplia Therapeutics (ASX:ATX) has achieved a second complete response in its 55-patient Accent trial evaluating FAK inhibitor narmafotinib in combination with chemotherapy in advanced pancreatic cancer.

It’s big news, as complete responses are very rare in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. A complete response (CR) means a disappearance of all tumour lesions has been maintained for more than two months.

A seminal study demonstrating the effect of chemotherapies gemcitabine and Abraxane in advanced pancreatic cancer reported only one complete response out of 431 patients.

Peak Minerals (ASX:PUA) reckons it’s sitting on a monazite-heavy mineral assemblage at Minta Est, part of the Minta rutile project in Cameroon.

The company’s sampling has revealed monazite content levels of up to 73%, alongside 35% rutile and 28% zircon. Monazite is valued at about 3-fold rutile and zircon, offering a potentially lucrative opportunity. PUA also averaged 2.4% heavy mineral content over 47 drill holes covering 121 square kilometres, with every hole returning mineralisation.

Surefire Resources (ASX:SRN) has kicked off 5,000m of drilling at its Yidby gold project in WA, looking to expand the project’s gold footprint.

The drill bit will also be testing new targets at the Fender and Marshall prospects and an extensive gold geochemical anomaly at the Money target, which will feel the drill’s bite for the first time.

Hydralite, better known as The Hydration Pharmaceuticals Company (ASX:HPC) on the ASX raked in US$308k in unaudited sales for the month of May, up 34% on April and 18% on May last year.

It’s a milestone for the company as the highest monthly total for the 2025 FY, underpinned by gross margins of 66.5%.

Resources & Energy Group (ASX:REZ) is poised to receive a cash injection of $1 million and 33 million QMines (ASX:QML) shares after getting the green light for the sale of the Mount Mackenzie gold project from due diligence teams.

The shares will be voluntarily be held in escrow for 12 months, offering REZ upside to whatever QML finds at Mount Mackenzie through its new share holding in the company.

ASX SMALL CAP LAGGARDS

Today’s worst performing small cap stocks:

Security	Name	Last	% Change	Volume	Market Cap
AFA	ASF Group Limited	0.004	-33%	91846	$4,754,385
AXP	AXP Energy Ltd	0.001	-33%	161237	$10,027,021
LNR	Lanthanein Resources	0.001	-33%	5463026	$4,215,272
TKL	Traka Resources	0.001	-33%	1320000	$3,188,685
AMI	Aurelia Metals Ltd	0.2175	-29%	64448869	$516,234,655
BLU	Blue Energy Limited	0.005	-29%	4258787	$12,956,815
VN8	Vonex Limited.	0.018	-28%	591400	$18,815,088
EEL	Enrg Elements Ltd	0.0015	-25%	40307965	$6,507,557
BAS	Bass Oil Ltd	0.023	-23%	4933335	$8,714,251
PGY	Pilot Energy Ltd	0.006	-20%	10175643	$16,189,950
FAU	First Au Ltd	0.004	-20%	2592000	$10,359,966
LU7	Lithium Universe Ltd	0.008	-20%	10180704	$7,859,796
MMR	Mec Resources	0.004	-20%	271460	$9,248,829
RLG	Roolife Group Ltd	0.004	-20%	142376	$7,963,906
NUC	Nuchev Limited	0.185	-18%	68794	$32,926,343
PNT	Panthermetalsltd	0.014	-18%	3023033	$5,115,377
AJL	AJ Lucas Group	0.005	-17%	3000000	$8,254,378
DGR	DGR Global Ltd	0.005	-17%	598401	$6,262,176
GLL	Galilee Energy Ltd	0.005	-17%	2818092	$4,243,157
OLI	Oliver'S Real Food	0.005	-17%	279999	$3,244,392
PVT	Pivotal Metals Ltd	0.01	-17%	13339185	$10,886,711
LMG	Latrobe Magnesium	0.008	-16%	4544607	$24,952,605
MEK	Meeka Metals Limited	0.1475	-16%	49351910	$440,248,405
AVD	Avada Group Limited	0.11	-15%	746	$11,041,553
CR3	Core Energy Minerals	0.011	-15%	1347637	$5,133,013

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

ADX Energy (ASX:ADX) has progressed its shallow gas ambitions in Austria with the maturing of seven prospects to drill-ready status. The prospects hold mean prospective resources totalling 29 billion cubic feet of gas.

EZZ Life Science (ASX:EZZ) has officially entered the US with four new supplements under its new brand, EZZDAY.

TRADING HALTS

African Gold Ltd (ASX:A1G) – resource upgrade
Alligator Energy Ltd (ASX:AGE) – cap raise
Estrella Resources Ltd (ASX:ESR) – exploration update
Microba Life Sciences Ltd (ASX:MAP) – cap raise
Prominence Energy Ltd (ASX:PRM) – acquisition & cap raise
Universal Biosensors Inc (ASX:UBI) – cap raise
Magellan Asset Management (AASF) – operational issues
Savana US Small Caps Active ETF (ASX:SVNP) – IT/maker disruptions

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While ADX Energy and EZZ Life Science are a Stockhead advertisers, they did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

Originally published as Closing Bell: ASX bets on July rate cut as employment data lands