‘Extend gains’: Aussie dollar could surge on US-China trade meeting

Record-breaking Aussie dollar could smash through 66 cents this week as markets await make-or-break trade deals and inflation data.

The Australian dollar rose to a yearly high on Friday and could break through a key barrier on a US-China trade deal or higher than expected inflation.

Australia’s dollar jumped to a nine month high of 66.24 US cents on Friday, before slipping to 65.63 cents during Monday’s trading.

But in its latest trading note, the Commonwealth Bank says the Australian dollar surge could continue this week, as the US continues to announce trading deals following a temporary pause in its tariffs.

“AUD/USD will likely extend its gains this week if US trade developments are perceived to be positive and risk sentiment improves and more trade deals can be announced ahead of the 1 August deadline,” CBA wrote.

The Aussie dollar has bit a new high for the year as Donald Trump announces new trade deals. Picture: NewsWire / Nicholas Eagar

The big four bank estimates the global effective tariff rate will stand around 20 per cent from August 1.

“The US may announce more trade deals this week ahead of the 1 August deadline and/or an extension to the US-China trade truce, supporting risk sentiment,” CBA wrote.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore highlights positive headlines out of the US that could help the Australian dollar.

“Whether the AUD/USD can extend those gains will likely depend on fresh tariff headlines, and inflation and jobs data in the US,” he said.

The US and China will meet in Stockholm on Monday, aimed at tackling longstanding economic disputes between the two countries.

The meeting in Sweden, led by US treasury secretary Scott Bessent and China vice premier He Lifeng, comes after the previous 90 day pause on tariffs in June.

In June both countries announced more than 100 per cent tariffs on each other in a tit-for-tat escalation between world’s two largest economies.

This truce will end on August 12, and a failure to reach an agreement will send global supply chains into turmoil as both countries face tariffs of more than 100 per cent.

RBA governor Michele Bullock explained why the central bank held rates in July. Photo: NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard

Domestically a higher than expected inflation number could also see the Australian dollar jump.

On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the CPI reading for the second quarter of this year, with any rise above 0.6 per cent for the quarter putting future rate cuts in doubt.

The March quarter inflation figure was 2.4 per cent.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said a lot of future rate cuts will come down to the CPI print.

“If the CPI is in line or just a little bit higher than the RBA forecast of 2.6 per cent rise in the trimmed mean for the year until June 30 then I think we will get a rate cut,” he said.

“But if it is 2.9 or even 2.8 then the RBA board might think lets wait a little longer.”

Mr Sycamore told NewsWire the Aussie dollar won’t run until later in the week, on the back of CPI data in Australia and jobs data out of the US on Friday.

“If there is a 4.3 per cent print, it gives the Aussie dollar the green light to push towards the mid 66s,” he said.

At the July RBA monetary board meeting, the central bank shocked markets by holding the official cash rate at 3.85 per cent on the back of monthly inflation and jobs figures being stronger than expected.

At the time governor Michele Bullock said the central bank could wait for the June quarterly figures to be released.

“Recent monthly CPI indicator data – which can be volatile and does not cover all items in the CPI – were broadly consistent with this expectation,” the RBA board said.

Originally published as ‘Extend gains’: Aussie dollar could surge on US-China trade meeting