Xi Jinping quick to engage in Donald Trump’s battle of ‘strongman’ wills

Beijing’s black box politics leaves us guessing at Xi Jinping’s motives and decision-making process. Picture: Getty Images

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Xi Jinping has long accused America of trying to goad him into a war that would ultimately thwart China.

He made the claim two years ago this month in a meeting with European Union president Ursula von der Leyen. “(Xi) said the US was trying to trick China into invading Taiwan, but that he would not take the bait,” the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the conversation.

Some thought it was an attempt to undermine Washington’s efforts to co-ordinate with Brussels after it became increasingly outspoken about Beijing’s intimidation of Taiwan following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Others worried the Chinese leader actually believed it.

“If Xi genuinely believes that the US actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor counsel from subordinates are, worryingly, true,” Jude Blanchette, one of the world’s top experts on China’s elite politics, said at the time.

According to Donald Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, Xi has just been goaded into an economic war with America. Was China’s leader really goaded – or has he been an eager participant?

Xi’s approach has demonstrably escalated the pain America has imposed on China. Measured by one standard – has a leader’s actions helped or hurt his or her people’s livelihoods? – it looks to have been a debacle.

At time of writing, American tariffs on Chinese goods are at 145 per cent and China’s on America are approaching 100 per cent, as the two leaders exchange near daily counterpunches. Economic pain is already being felt, despite the bravado of Beijing’s mouthpieces.

Shanghai’s normally bustling port came to an abrupt halt this week. Chinese workers in vulnerable industries such as textiles are being told to apply for months of unscheduled leave as orders have dried up. It is unclear if their jobs will exist when their “leave” ends.

Some divine a brilliant long-term plan informing Xi’s pugnacious style, just as Trump’s defenders insist there is wisdom in his chaos.

Perhaps. But it seems more than possible that China, as with America, is led by a strongman almost addicted to crisis.

There are also upsides for Xi’s cherished Communist Party. For all the hardship many of China’s people look set to endure, the current situation gives the senior cadres in Zhongnanhai a clear enemy to fight against, and justify their ongoing rule.

Any China analyst worth listening to will admit Beijing’s black box politics leaves us guessing at Xi’s motives and decision-making process – a disturbing situation as the People’s Liberation Army continues to accumulate ever more lethal capabilities.

All the while Beijing’s propaganda machine sends out messages so chilling that, as with Trump’s most shocking statements, many hope they are not meant to be taken literally.

Right now, following the boss’s orders, the Foreign Ministry is telling the Chinese public to learn from the fighting rhetoric Mao Zedong used to justify sending the PLA to battle American troops in Korea in the 1950s in one of the bloodiest chapters in the Cold War. “We are Chinese. We are not afraid of provocations. We don’t back down,” a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said as she posted the black-and-white clip on X.

It is a historical episode Xi has returned to over and over since his strongman tussle with Trump the first time around. The obsession looks increasingly disturbing as the Xi-Trump trade war creates ever more friction in their already combustible relationship.

And a reminder, as if anyone needed it, that there is plenty of room for things to get a lot worse in this superpower showdown.