Why Michigan and Ohio are likely to decide the 2020 US election
With polling day only weeks away, those living in Michigan and Ohio — states likely to decide the result — have been energised.
Early last week, Michigan construction worker Mark DeBusschere became fed up with what he calls the “uproar” across America. So he made his own statement by digging a hole in his front yard and planting a large flagpole with a “Trump 2020” flag on it.
“I did it because of all the uproar in this country, the riots, the crime, the Supreme Court stuff; I mean, everything is upside down in this country and I’m worried that we are heading for socialism if Joe Biden gets in,” he tells me as he puts the finishing touches on the flagpole.
DeBusschere is the sort of voter who will decide this US presidential election because he has spent his life swapping his vote between Republican and Democrat presidents depending “on who speaks my language”.
DeBusschere lives in Macomb County just north of Detroit in Michigan, a traditionally Democrat state that Donald Trump won by only 11,000 votes in 2016. Trump won Michigan largely because of the voters in Macomb County, who voted for Barack Obama twice only to surge to Trump in 2016. Whoever wins in Macomb — a patchwork of middle-class rural white voters, suburban mums and urban African-Americans — on November 3 may well win the White House.
Macomb County was where the term Reagan Democrats was coined when the county’s white working-class Democrats in the 1980s swapped to vote for a Republican president, just like they did for Trump in 2016.
DeBusschere understands this because he was an original Reagan Democrat. “We loved Reagan,” says the 63-year-old, who voted for Obama in 2008 but supported Trump in 2016.
“I am voting for Trump again this time because under Obama I was just barely working; now I have more work than I can do, I’m actually putting money in my pocket,” he says. “Trump saved our economy and brought business back to this country. And also he speaks my language, that’s the way we speak on construction sites and I can understand what he says and what he means.”
Despite Biden currently enjoying a large lead over Trump in the polls, both DeBusschere and his wife believe the president, now recovering from COVID-19, will engineer another come-from-behind victory like he did in 2016.
DeBusschere’s wife, Debbie, a retired nurse, says she will vote for Trump because she thinks he is stronger on the law and order issue. “I think the violence in this country is going to get worse. We are grateful we live where we live rather than a big city.”
As she speaks, a friend of theirs, Deanna, drives past and yells out of the window: “I’m feeling better today.” “She has COVID, that’s probably why she didn’t stop to talk,” Debbie DeBusschere says.
Michigan has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, losing more than 7000 people in a population of 10 million. The perception that Trump has handled the pandemic poorly is one reason Biden leads Trump by 6.2 points in the state. But the Trump campaign still believes Michigan is winnable for the president.
Inquirer spent a week driving through Michigan and Ohio, two key battleground states that Trump won in 2016 and that could decide the election. Cleveland, Ohio, was the scene of the brawling first presidential debate.
With only one month until polling day, those living in America’s midwest rust belt — who are likely to decide the result — have been energised by the contest. On almost every suburban street in Michigan and Ohio there are front yards displaying Trump or Biden signs. Trump signs are generally more common than Biden signs and Trump supporters are more overt in their support, often draping huge Trump flags from their front porch or flying them from flagpoles.
“Do you like my sign,” asks Michael Ramaci as he points to the Trump 2020 flag on his garage. Ramaci, a father of three who moves billiard tables for a living in Macomb County, voted for Obama but is now an unabashed Trump fan.
“He’s been phenomenal, I think he’s going to go down as the best president we ever had,” says Ramaci. “I mean he is so transparent, you know what he is thinking about everything.”
Ramaci likes that Trump has tried to reopen the US economy quickly rather than stay closed in the face of the coronavirus. “I’ve got to feed my kids and if I get COVID, then I get it,” he says. “I mean seriously, am I going to live in a bubble? I could go out in my car and die at the corner.”
He says he fears the left-wing agenda of the Democrats and believes that law and order could collapse if Biden is elected.
“If the Democrats win I think evil will overpower our country. I mean, look at Black Lives Matter and Antifa; if that isn’t from the pit of hell I don’t know what is — that is just Satan in its purest form. Hands down. If the violence and crime comes to my doorstep I’ll throw some lead to protect my family. I’m concerned because the left in this country are calling for a coup.”
Across the road, Ramaci’s neighbour Kevin James, an army combat veteran of 27 years has a “Biden 2020” sign in his yard and shakes his head at the idea of four more years of Trump. “He wants to be an authoritarian. As far as I’m concerned we don’t run like that, this is a democratic country, we have a constitution and we must abide by the constitution,” says James, a father of seven and an African-American.
“Our relationship in the world was really good in the Obama years … why are you (Trump) making enemies with our allies? I got Biden winning by a landslide — I know a lot of Republicans here have switched, a lot of them flipped, I got friends all around here that have come to me for (Biden 2020) signs.”
Biden and Trump have made repeated campaign stops in Michigan, both promising to revive manufacturing in the state.
Biden visited Macomb County last month, when he spoke of the Obama administration’s work in bailing out Detroit’s car industry.
Don Keylon was one of those automotive workers and a lifelong member of the United Auto Workers Union. “I wish we had better choices,” laments the now retired Keylon, as he walks his dog Tank with his wife Antoinette in Macomb county. “Biden is very old but I think he is more for the country than Trump, who is more for himself. I worry that if Trump gets another term we may have a dictator on our hands.”
He is angry with Trump for playing down the dangers of COVID. “I had the coronavirus, I know it’s real. I had it for 10 weeks and I was very ill; this is one of my first walks outside. And Trump is playing like there is nothing to it; it’s not health to him, it’s all politics. I’m voting for Biden.”
In Michigan and Ohio, there were common themes raised by the voters with whom I spoke. On the pandemic, Biden supporters were very critical of Trump’s handling of the crisis while Trump supporters say he did as well as could have been expected given the unknowns about the disease. Trump supporters said the economy and jobs were the most important issues to them, while Biden supporters focused more on the pandemic and issues such as immigration and racial justice.
Many Democrat voters described Biden as decent but some were lukewarm about him, with several saying the former vice-president was the “lesser of two evils”. Biden supporters told me repeatedly they hated Trump’s style of leadership, describing him as divisive, authoritarian and dismissive of the institutions of democracy.
The Trump supporters I spoke to loved his style, saying it was real and that Trump was fighting a brave uphill battle for ordinary workers against the left and the liberal media.
John Serra, a Macomb County real estate agent who owns horses, says he was once a Democrat but is now a firm Trump supporter because he believes America’s traditional way of life is under attack.
“Over the last number of years I’ve come to believe more in traditional American values because our Democratic Party has veered enormously to the left,” he says “Their politics of identity has become ridiculous — you and I, white men, we’ve been erased.”
Serra, son of Italian immigrants and a father of four, spoke of how Detroit was once the manufacturing powerhouse of the US but was destroyed by foreign competition. He says Trump is bringing business back to America, reviving cities such as Detroit.
“Look at how much better our economy is with Trump,” he says. “I think Trump is braggadocios and egotistical but he also has a certain noble streak that I didn’t see prior to this — he has tried to keep his contract with his people, he has tried to keep his promises.”
In the small farming community of Fremont, in northern Ohio, firefighter Ken Luc says he was a lifelong Republican until Trump came along. “I saw him as a conman who was in it for himself, and that’s how it has been so I am voting for Biden,” says the 46-year-old, who runs a small refrigeration business on his days off.
“I do refrigeration work and when Trump became the president he changed all the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) regulations which had been introduced for climate change. It was great for my refrigeration business but I have three kids to worry about who have to live on this Earth. It was a horrible thing for Trump to do.”
Ohio has long been considered a bellwether state, voting for every winning presidential candidate since 1964. Trump won Ohio in 2016 by eight points on the back of strong support from blue-collar workers who felt left behind by the decline of manufacturing jobs in this rust-belt state.
Biden leads Trump in Ohio by a narrow 0.6 points and both candidates have made repeated visits here in recent weeks.
In the small Ohio town of Clyde, Steve Cleveland, is loading his red pick-up truck outside his home and speaks of how he saw Trump last month when the President visited the Whirlpool factory where Cleveland works.
“It was great to see him,” says Cleveland, who will vote for Trump. “Trump is a trouper, everyone is so hard on him, he doesn’t have to be there. I am a middle-class working man, working my whole life, paying my taxes, and I am tired of the freeloaders getting benefits when they don’t deserve it. The Democrats are going too far left — they want to be a democratic socialist party and that will lead to communism … it’s all bad, look what happened to Venezuela.”
Retired hospital clerk Shelley Johnson walks her dog in Fremont and says she will vote for Trump because she likes his policies and says he has kept his promises. “The issue of abortion is very important to me, I am pro-life and also the issue of gun rights,” says Johnson, a mother of two. “I like that he protects our second amendment, that is important. Overall I am very impressed with Trump.”
Around the corner, retired factory supervisor Alan Gill says he will vote for Trump because he doesn’t like the modern Democratic Party.
“I used to vote either way but over the last 10 years the Democrats have changed so much that I think they’ve gone way too far left and if you look at history, it’s not the way to go,” he says. “Trump is not a perfect guy. for sure, he is a typical New Yorker, but I like that he stands his ground. I like what he has done on China — we were giving way too much to China.”
But Gill’s wife Pam says: “I don’t agree with my husband. I am going to vote for Biden because Trump is a lunatic. Biden is better on women’s rights and on healthcare, and those are important issues for me.
“It’s fair to say that sometimes dinner at our house can get a little heated,” the mother of five says with a smile. “Because only one of us can win this election.”
Cameron Stewart is also US contributor for Sky News Australia.
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