Why China is picking a fight with Japan
“We have no choice,” posted China’s consul general in Osaka, “but to cut off that dirty neck that has lunged at us without a moment’s hesitation. Are you ready?”
That post has been taken down, but plenty of others jumped in. As the crisis escalated, Chinese officials urged Chinese tourists and businesspeople to avoid travel to Japan, warned students of risks they allegedly faced there and sent a flurry of coast guard ships to patrol waters claimed by Japan.
Ms Takaichi’s “crime” was to give an honest and straightforward answer to a question in parliament. Katsuya Okada of the Constitutional Democratic Party had asked what Chinese actions in or around Taiwan would constitute “a survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
It’s a serious question. Under national security legislation passed in 2015, “survival-threatening” situations could trigger an armed Japanese response. Ms Takaichi’s answer was clear. An armed attempt by China to force Taiwan under its control could constitute the kind of survival-threatening situation the 2015 legislation envisioned, and Japan’s forces might well support the US and other allies under those circumstances.
While no previous Japanese leader had put things quite so clearly, there was no real change in Japan’s underlying position. A Chinese attack on Taiwan would pose a massive threat to Japan. In the short term, war would disrupt trade, blocking imports of food and energy without which Japan couldn’t survive, and placing tens of thousands of Japanese visitors, students and businesspeople in Taiwan at risk.
Some Chinese reaction was inevitable. Countries that have territorial claims must constantly assert those claims to keep them alive. From Beijing’s standpoint, Taiwan is a province of China, and the rest of the world has no right to interfere in how China treats it. If Japan says that it might intervene in a conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, China must protest, or it is admitting there are doubts about its claim. Similarly, anytime the US sells arms to Taipei, China must lodge a protest to demonstrate that it takes its own claim seriously and hopes to enforce it one day.
But if a reaction was inevitable, a crisis wasn’t. China could have made a pro forma protest and moved on in a couple of weeks. Instead, Beijing has decided to turn a modest kerfuffle into a major confrontation. Why?
Beijing’s motivations can be hard for outsiders to read, but two things seem to be happening. First, the Chinese Communist Party has a long tradition of bullying. Whether it is dealing with opponents at home or obstreperous foreign governments, Beijing’s first instinct is often to intimidate, threaten and, when possible, to compel. If this works, fine. If it doesn’t, China can always switch to a less confrontational approach.
Second, Beijing hopes to undermine Ms Takaichi’s power before she can fully consolidate her position. She is a protégée of the hawkish former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. And since the somewhat pacifist Komeito Party refused to serve under her in a coalition government, she’s been able to bring a hawkish smaller party into the governing coalition.
China worries that Ms Takaichi, unchecked, will take more steps to strengthen Japan’s military posture. A Kyodo News report suggests that her government may be considering an end to Japan’s longstanding ban on nuclear weapons on its territory. As China carries out the fastest nuclear arms-building program in world history, it wants weak, non-nuclear neighbours.
China hopes that pitching a fit over Ms Takaichi’s statement could activate her domestic opponents. Lots of Japanese companies depend on Chinese factories for key imports, and many others depend on access to Chinese markets. Many powerful figures in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party have close ties to these companies. Others represent constituencies where China-linked businesses are major employers, or where tourism is a major source of income. Many of Ms Takaichi’s parliamentary colleagues are sceptical of the first female prime minister in Japanese history. Focused economic pressure from China just might persuade the party barons to deliver a strong behind-the-scenes message to their leader.
Ms Takaichi says Margaret Thatcher is her role model. Let’s hope that this Iron Lady is as tough and resourceful as the first.
The Wall Street Journal
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China’s wolf warriors have a new target. Reuters reports that they’re resorting to barnyard language to attack Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s new prime minister. “Has her head been kicked by a donkey?” asked a social-media account linked to the state broadcaster CCTV. “If she continues to spew [scatological vulgarity] without any boundaries like this, Takaichi might have to pay the price!”