West warns Russia against Ukraine incursion

The US and its allies have warned Moscow of grave consequences if “any” of the troops massed on the border cross the border into Ukraine.

Ukrainian servicemen laying flowers for their fallen comrades at the Memorial Bell in Kiev on Thursday. Picture: AFP

The US and its allies have warned Moscow of grave consequences if “any” of the tens of thousands of troops massed on the border were to cross the border into Ukraine.

Following talks in Berlin with Germany, France and Britain, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken underlined late on Thursday that Russia “cannot match” Western powers’ resoluteness.

Allowing Russia to violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity would “drag us all back to a much more dangerous and unstable time, when this continent, and this city, were divided in two … with the threat of all-out war hanging over everyone’s heads,” he said in the German capital.

In a show of that unity, German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, speaking alongside Mr Blinken, said the West would not shy away from taking action, even if that included measures that “could have economic consequences for ourselves”.

Fears are mounting that a major conflict could break out in Europe, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson cautioned that Russia marching on Ukraine would have repercussions beyond the continent.

“It would be a disaster for the world,” he said.

In a bid to defuse the worst tensions between Russia and the West in decades, Mr Blinken is on a whirlwind diplomatic tour that took him to Berlin on Thursday before his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva on Friday.

Moscow insists it has no plans to invade but has at the same time laid down a series of demands — including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO — in exchange for de-escalation. Washington has rejected Moscow’s demands as “non-starters” and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg this week insisted that the alliance “will not compromise on core principles, such as the right for each nation to choose its own path”.

Annalena Baerbock greets Antony Blinken in Berlin on Thursday. Picture: AFP

Upping the ante, Russia announced new naval drills in the Atlantic, Pacific, Arctic and Mediterranean. The announcement followed an angry condemnation from the Kremlin of what it described as “destabilising” remarks from Joe Biden, after the US President vowed a “severe” response to any invasion of Ukraine.

Russia already held joint military drills on Wednesday with forces of ex-Soviet republic Belarus, which also neighbours Ukraine.

A US official said the exercises could presage a permanent Russian military presence involving both conventional and nuclear forces in Belarus. The West has repeatedly warned Russia it would pay a “high price” of economic and political sanctions should it invade Ukraine.

Hours before Mr Blinken arrived in Berlin to co-ordinate the possible response to Russia, Mr Biden sparked controversy as he appeared to indicate that a “minor incursion” might prompt a smaller reaction from NATO allies.

Mr Blinken in Berlin clarified the comments on German television channel ZDF saying that any crossing of the border into Ukraine by Russian soldiers would constitute a very clear aggression, irrespective of whether it was a single soldier of a thousand.

Mr Biden also took pains to calm frazzled nerves, saying that any entry of Russian troops into Ukraine will be treated by the West as “an invasion”.

But smarting from Mr Biden’s remark, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hit back that there was no such thing as “minor incursions”.

The West’s diplomatic machine has been running on full power over recent weeks to defuse tensions, but with positions entrenched on both sides, a series of talks between Western and Russian officials in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna has failed to yield any breakthrough. NATO allies have signalled their willingness to keep talking but Moscow has demanded a written response on its proposals for security guarantees.

On the Russian wish list are measures that would limit military activities in the former Warsaw Pact and ex-Soviet countries that joined NATO after the Cold War. But in Kiev on Wednesday, Mr Blinken said he would not present such a formal response at Friday’s talks with Mr Lavrov. Rather it was on Russia to dispel fears of any expansionist intentions.

In a speech in Sydney on Friday, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was to warn Russian President Vladimir Putin against making a strategic blunder and becoming embroiled in a “terrible quagmire” if Russia invades Ukraine.

AFP