Warmonger or moderate: who will Hamas choose as its new leader?

Yahya Sinwar’s death has left a vacuum in Hamas’s leadership, with the group now at a crossroads, its path dependant on whether it chooses Sinwar’s brutal brother or a moderate leader.

The two leading contenders to take over Hamas are Mohammad Sinwar (L) and Khaled Mashaal. Picture: Supplied.

The death of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s brutal commander, has left a vacuum in the militant group’s leadership, with the group now at a crossroads between enduring war and a negotiated peace with Israel.

Sinwar’s death does not necessarily mean the end of Hamas – in fact, experts on both sides warn, his “martyrdom” could strengthen the Palestinian group’s resolve. But it gives the moderates in the group an opening to take over the leadership and secure a ceasefire – and the release of the Israeli hostages.

Sinwar, 61, met his death killed in Rafah on Wednesday local time during a routine Israeli Defence Forces raid on the suburb where they had been searching for him for months.

It has emerged that Sinwar’s body was found in the same building where six hostages were executed by Hamas; the IDF now believes he had been using the hostages as a human shield.

The leadership of Hamas is now thinning out … Sinwar took over as Hamas leader after his predecessor Ismail Haniyeh was killed by an Israeli air strike in Tehran, while Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’s Ezzedeen al-Qassam Brigades – the group’s military wing – was killed in July.

Deif has been replaced by Sinwar’s brother Mohammad, known to be at least as brutal as the assassinated leader, who is now a leading contender for the leadership of the decimated group.

A second main contender is Khaled Meshaal, a moderate who had been the favourite to take over from Haniyeh before being pushed aside by Yahya Sinwar.

The choice now for Hamas will be between a leader who promotes peace or one who, like the Sinwar brothers, favours war.

The only recent picture of Mohammad Sinwar (R), caught in an Israeli Defence Forces video as he travelled through a tunnel in Gaza. Picture: IDF.

Mohammed Sinwar

The brother of the late Hamas leader, Mohammed Sinwar is one of the terror group’s most senior commanders of its military branch and could be a “dark horse” candidate to take over the group.

At 49, Sinwar has flown under the radar most of his career with Hamas and made few public appearances or comments to media, according to Reuters. He remains one of Israel’s top targets and has survived numerous assassination attempts over the years.

He is regarded as at least as brutal as his brother. ‘People would look at the ground when he walked by,’ Gazans told Israel’s Ynet TV, and he would be likely to continue taking Gaza on Hamas’s road to war.

Sinwar lacks the charismatic leadership and vision of his brother had but his name could command respect from the Hamas rank and file.

Certainly, he is “alive and running things,” according to Israeli security expert Amir Avivi.

The Sinwar brothers were very close, and both are believed to have worked together to plan the October 7 attack on Israel which left more than 1,200 dead, according to Fox News.

Experts told The New York Post that Hamas could opt to retaliate to Yahya’s slaying by murdering the remaining hostages — a grim possibility if Mohammed is next in line, giving the sibling’s shared ruthlessness.

Khaled Mashaal is a moderate who could take Hamas on the path to peace. Picture: NurPhoto via Getty Images.

Khaled Meshaal

Khaled Meshaal, 68, was Hamas’ leader from 2004 to 2017 and is seen as more likely than Mohammad Sinwar to be Hamas’s next leader.

“He’s the heir apparent out of the process of elimination — literally,” Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research of Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told The New York Post.

Designated a global terrorist by the US, Meshaal, like Haniyeh is based out of Qatar, and narrowly missed out on the leadership after Haniyeh’s death after a power play by Sinwar, who had refused to support him.

Meshaal called for an escalation of violence after Sinwar took over — urging Palestinians in the West Bank to carry out suicide bombings against Israelis — but is seen as a moderate who would be more likely to listen to Washington’s calls for a ceasefire.

“It’s time for the White House to up the ante and demand that Doha act like a genuine ally and extradite one of the world’s most wanted terrorists,” Mr Schanzer told The Post, noting that the war in Gaza could “end tomorrow” if Qatar pressured Meshaal into calling for the release of hostages.

Khalil Al Hayya

Hamas’ top negotiator, who was at the forefront of ceasefire talks in Cairo and Doha over the summer is third in line to succeed Sinwar.

Earlier this year, Al Hayya suggested Hamas could give up its arms if Israel allowed the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank, something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has adamantly opposed.

“All the military chiefs who helped him launch the Oct. 7 attack are already dead, so only Hamas’ political chiefs are left,” retired Gen. Jack Keane, chairman of the Institute for the Study of War, previously told The Post.

Hussam Badran

Hussam Badran, 58, is one of Hamas’s most prominent public spokesmen.

Badran served time as a leader in Hamas military wing, but it is largely his status as one of Hamas’ last living public faces that would make him viable candidate to take over.

However he is not seen as a real leader and is an unlikely candidate.

Mohammad Shabana

Mohammad Shabana is one of Hamas’ last surviving top leaders of Hamas’ military, heading up their southern forces in Rafah.

He is believed to have played a major role in planning the extensive network of tunnels in Rafah that have made the fighting so fraught in the area, according to Reuters.

Shabana has been in charge of Hamas’ forces in Rafah since 2014.