US would suffer ‘devastating losses’ in war over Taiwan
The US and Japan could successfully defend Taiwan if China attempted to invade the island, but not without calamitous attrition rates, warns analysis from a Washington think tank.
The US and Japan could successfully defend Taiwan if China attempted to invade the island, but not without “devastating losses” to the US military, according to a Washington think tank.
A naval battle between China forces and combined US and Japanese navies and air forces could destroy up to 150 Chinese amphibious and other surface ships, analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies concludes.
However in the worst case scenario, around half of the US Air Force and Navy’s combat planes – 900 American fighter and attack aircraft – would be lost in four weeks, Pentagon and US Navy officials and other experts warn in the analysis.
The bleak report comes as Beijing staged a week of aggressive military drills around the island in the wake of the visit from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the most senior American politician to set foot on the island in 25 years.
The drills included firing 11 ballistic missiles over and around Taiwan, while dozens of Chinese warships and aircraft also crossed the unofficial border in the Taiwan Strait.
On Wednesday, China’s ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian declared Beijing was “ready to use all necessary measures” to restore the liberal democracy “to the motherland”.
In a speech to the National Press Club in Canberra, Mr Xiao threatened a re-education process for Taiwan’s 23 million people to give them “a correct understanding” of China, after unification.
Separately on Wednesday, Beijing released a new white paper claiming ownership of the island and its people was “an indisputable fact” and reserving the right to use force to take it back.
The full CSIS report which envisaged an invasion in 2026, won’t be published until December. However a version seen by The Times of London warns there will be no clear winner in the event of a full-scale conflict. The experts predicted that PLA ballistic missiles would sink a large proportion of the US and Japanese fleets and destroy hundreds of aircraft on the ground.
“However, allied air and naval counter-attacks [would] hammer the exposed Chinese amphibious and surface fleet, eventually sinking about 150 ships,” Marc Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS, told The Times.
Mr Cancian said the think tank’s analysis took into account the military capabilities illustrated by China’s military exercises last week.
“In nearly all the scenarios, the US/Japan/Taiwan are able to prevent Chinese forces from occupying the entire island. However, the cost is extremely high,” he said.
In the wake of such a war, “it would take years for the US to rebuild its forces because of low production rates. Other nations such as Russia and Iran might take advantage of US weakness,” he added.
“The US will need to strengthen its position enough to deter China or to win the war without experiencing high attrition,” he said.
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