Hezbollah ‘aims to target senior official’: US warns Iran of ‘serious risk’ if it conducts major attack

As it becomes increasingly likely Hezbollah will attack Israel ahead of an Iran strike, Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet is meeting in an underground bunker.

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) during a War Cabinet meeting at the Kirya in Tel Aviv. Picture: AFP.

As it becomes increasingly likely that Hezbollah will attack Israel sooner and harder than Iran, Jerusalem believes the Iranian-backed group will try to target a senior Israeli official in retaliation for the assassination of commander Fuad Shukr last week.

Channel 13 reports the Iranian backed group is looking for a “fat intention”, which is being interpreted as an aim to target an Israeli leader.

The broadcaster also reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is considering a less severe response to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. This is partly because he believes that the well-armed Hezbollah will hit Israel hard.

Israel’s security cabinet has convened in an underground bunker; the first time officials have met in the underground command room of the Kirya military headquarters since Iran’s attack on April 13. However according to Israeli media, the location does not mean the cabinet fears an attack today, but so they can drill for a potential emergency situation.

Israeli media reports that Jerusalem is not confidant it will be able to warn the Israeli people before the attacks begin.

Speaking directly to the Lebanese people, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant advised them against a Hezbollah attack, warning them: “Those who play with fire may expect destruction.”

In a post on X written in Arabic, Mr Gallant warned: “The State of Israel wants peace, prosperity and stability on both sides of the northern border and therefore will in no way allow the Hezbollah militia to destabilise the border and the region. If Hezbollah continues its aggression, Israel will fight it with all its might.”

He added that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had regretted the “uncalculated adventure of August 2006,” referring to the Second Lebanon War which erupted when Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and killed others.

Haifa Mayor Yona Yahav also referred to that war, telling public broadcaster Kan Hezbollah’s arsenal was far more advanced than it was in 2006:

“They are very precise missiles, and they are expected to fire 4,000 missiles at us each day,” he said.

US warns Iran of ‘significant blow’ if it mounts major attack

The U.S. has warned Iran that its newly elected government and economy could suffer a devastating blow if it were to mount a major attack against Israel, a U.S. official said.

The warning has been communicated directly to Tehran as well as through intermediaries, said the official, who declined to provide specifics.

“The United States has sent clear messaging to Iran that the risk of a major escalation if they do a significant retaliatory attack against Israel is extremely high,” said the official.

Those messages have also put Tehran on notice “that there is a serious risk of consequences for Iran’s economy and the stability of its newly elected government if it goes down that path,” the official added.

The Biden administration has been mounting an intensive campaign to discourage Iran, its proxies and Israel from undertaking military action that would escalate tensions in the region as Washington tries to salvage prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza.

On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the U.S. has communicated “that message directly to Iran,” though he didn’t provide details of what was said or how it was communicated.

The U.S. message to Tehran, officials said, wasn’t intended as a threat to carry out U.S. military action against targets in Iran but was intended as a warning about the risks of provoking a robust military response from Israel.

But the U.S. has also made clear that it is ready to use force to defend Israel, as it did in April. Stealthy F-22 fighters have been deployed to a base in the Middle East, the U.S. Central Command said Wednesday.

The U.S. has sent more ships capable of shooting down ballistic missiles to the region. A U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is also in the Gulf of Oman. The Navy has also moved an F/A-18 fighter squadron from that carrier to a base in a Middle East nation to position the aircraft closer to the action should hostilities erupt, according to another U.S. official.

U.S. officials still don’t have clear indications of the scope and timing of an Iranian response, unlike the days leading up to Iran’s April 13 missile and drone attack on Israel. Tehran carried out that attack in retaliation for Israel’s killing of a senior Iranian paramilitary commander and other Iranian military officers in Damascus.

Based on the latest intelligence, officials think a response, if it happens, may now occur over the weekend.

“It’s pushing to the right a little bit,” according to a third U.S. official, who declined to discuss intelligence but said the indications are Iran is “still planning.” Officials also don’t know for sure whether Hezbollah plans to attack at the same time in a co-ordinated offensive with Iran or separately. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of missiles that can reach Israel and the concern is that the group and Iran might attack at the same time to try to overwhelm Israel’s missile defences.

“Last time we got more of a heads up, and this time people are making their best guesses,” said the third U.S. official.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who was sworn in last week, is thought to be open to renewing dialogue with the West, though fundamental policy has long been set by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

Dow Jones