US says historic Israel-Saudi normalisation deal within reach but Israel might baulk

US says the normalisation deal is within reach but Jerusalem would be reluctant to accept Riyadh’s demands for a new commitment to a Palestinian state and a halt to the Gaza war.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends a Joint Ministerial Meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council-US Strategic Partnership. Picture: AFP.

Biden administration officials said Tuesday that a US-brokered deal to normalise relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia was within reach, but that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government might baulk at the historic agreement rather than accept Riyadh’s demands for a new commitment to a Palestinian state and a halt to the Gaza war.

“The Saudis have been clear that [normalisation] would require calm in Gaza and it would require a credible pathway to a Palestinian state,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday. “It may well be that in this moment Israel isn’t able or willing to proceed down that pathway.”

For months, the administration has hoped Netanyahu would grab at the long-sought prize of normalisation with Riyadh as part of a sweeping agreement aimed at halting the Gaza war and transforming the region’s long-static divisions.

But Netanyahu, under pressure from right-wing members of his governing coalition and fighting for his political survival, has yet to sign on to elements of the deal that are key to getting Saudi agreement.

Blinken’s sobering forecast came after a visit to the region over the weekend by Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, who held talks in Riyadh with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before travelling to Israel, where he briefed Netanyahu on the White House Middle East blueprint.

Israel is in the early stages of an attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, the last Hamas stronghold that Netanyahu and other Israel officials are insisting must be taken, even if it means refusing or delaying a deal that U.S. and Saudi officials say is all but completed, except for Israel’s portion.

“Israel will achieve its war objectives of destroying Hamas’s military capabilities, freeing our hostages and ensuring that Gaza doesn’t pose a threat to Israel,” a senior Israeli official said Tuesday in response to Blinken’s testimony. “Achieving those objectives will further facilitate peace in the Middle East.” To encourage Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel, U.S. officials have offered Riyadh a more formal defence relationship with Washington, assistance in acquiring civil nuclear power and a renewed push for a Palestinian state.

After Sullivan’s talks with Prince Mohammed in the eastern Saudi city of Dammam, the kingdom said they had discussed “the semi-final version of the draft strategic agreements” between Washington and Riyadh.

“Nobody here is going to say this is just right around the corner,” said a senior administration official of the normalisation talks. “It does have the possibility to play into an endgame scenario in Gaza as you look ahead.” Sealing a landmark Saudi-Israeli rapprochement could reshuffle Middle Eastern politics, solidify an Israeli-Arab coalition against Iran and would be a diplomatic coup for President Biden as he faces a tough re-election campaign.

Brokering a deal to establish diplomatic relations between two of the region’s most powerful countries would expand the Abraham Accords that former President Donald Trump sealed when he was in office. The accords led to the normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.

But persuading Netanyahu to embrace a new push for a Palestinian state has proved difficult in the aftermath of the deadly Hamas attacks on southern Israel in October, which intensified opposition to the idea among right-wing members of his government and much of the Israeli public.

Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet, sharply criticised Netanyahu’s handling of the war in Gaza and threatened to quit the government in June if the prime minister doesn’t articulate a plan for ending the war and securing the enclave of more than two million Palestinians.

If Netanyahu continues to baulk, Biden administration officials have said, Washington might make so far undisclosed details of the diplomatic package public to make clear the choice Israel faces – and increase the pressure on the Israeli prime minister.

Biden administration officials have said that they don’t plan to complete and implement the agreements with Saudi Arabia unless Israel agrees to the components of the larger deal.

Dow Jones