Will Tim Walz help Kamala Harris win the midwest?

Minnesota Governor and 2024 Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz at the Democratic National Convention. Picture: AFP

Vice-presidential running mate Tim Walz has introduced himself to Americans as a homespun, plain speaking, footy coach-turned-governor as he seeks to persuade critical midwestern states to vote for the Kamala Harris/Walz ticket.

The 60-year-old Minnesota governor’s speech to the Democratic National Convention was a powerful oration, recounting parts of his life story, his small town childhood and his values while taking some sharp jabs at Donald Trump and Trump’s running mate JD Vance.

The prime time speech was the first opportunity for many Americans to assess the man who might soon become their vice-president, with polls showing almost half of Americans do not know enough about Walz to have an opinion about him.

The role of this folksy white midwestern man in this presidential race is to help Harris win over similar white voters in the gritty battleground midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

The theory is that these voters will identify with Walz in a way they might not naturally connect with Harris, a black woman from California, making them more likely to vote for a Harris/Walz ticket.

Whether this will work is open to debate. Studies over the years suggest that vice-presidential picks make only a marginal difference at best to voter intentions. Fewer than one in ten, over a lifetime of voting, say they have ever changed their vote because of who a candidate’s running mate was.

Studies also suggest that the geographic location of a running mate – such as Walz in midwestern Minnesota – does not do much to influence votes. Likewise, gender-based running mate choices have not yielded obvious benefits with neither Geraldine Ferraro, the running mate of Walter Mondale in 1984, or Sarah Palin, John Cain’s choice in 2008, turning out many more female votes than usual.

The evidence suggests that the only time a vice-presidential pick makes much difference is if the pick is a bad one. For example Palin in 2008, the then governor of Alaska, was panned for her gaffe-prone performance on a losing ticket.

So maybe the more relevant question is whether Walz, or Vance, pose a risk to the presidential candidates.

Both Walz and Vance have been attacked by their opponents since their selection as each side probes for weaknesses.

Vance has taken aim at Walz over claims that he misrepresented his military service and that he retired from the national guard after 24 years to avoid a 2005 deployment to Iraq, something which Walz denies.

Walz on stage on Thursday (AEST). Picture: AFP

Republicans have also criticised Walz over his progressive record in Minnesota where he his state codified abortion rights, enacted new gun control laws, provided free lunch to public-school students and implemented a child tax credit.

“He’s probably about the same as Bernie Sanders,” Trump says of Walz’s ideology. “There has never been a ticket like this. This is a ticket that would want this country to go communist immediately, if not sooner.’

Vance, a MAGA populist warrior like Trump, has taken harder hits than Walz since he became Trump’s running mate last month, as a series of old comments resurfaced to haunt him.

Most damaging was his 2021 comment that the Democrats consisted of “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too.” He said that included Harris who has no biological children but is step-mother to her husband’s two children.

Vance has also been attacked for previously suggesting giving extra votes for people with children.

Vance’s comments have the potential to damage the Trump campaign given it is already struggling to attract female voters, especially since Harris took over from Joe Biden as the Democrat candidate.

At this stage, Walz seems a safer bet for Harris than Vance is for Trump. Walz’s progressive record may put some conservatives off, but most Americans probably won’t delve much into Minnesota politics and will judge him more on his affable personality and on his performance at this DNC.

We will soon see whether Walz helps win the midwest for Harris in November. But it could be that John F Kennedy was right when he declared in 1960 after announcing he would contest the Democratic nomination: “I don’t recall a single case where a vice-presidential candidate contributed an electoral vote.”