US braces for wild ride as Donald Trump hush-money verdict looms

Republicans and Democrats are bracing for the result of the historic criminal trial of Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee for president.

Donald Trump raises his fist during a NASCAR race in Concord, North Carolina. Picture: Getty Images.

The US presidential campaign is poised for a dramatic shake-up this week as New York jurors begin deliberations over whether to criminally convict Donald Trump, the leading Republican presidential candidate, for hush-money payments made to an adult film star in 2016.

Mr Trump, who faces up to four years in prison if convicted and is already the first current or former US president to face a criminal trial, took to social media on Monday (Tuesday AEST) to blast Juan Merchan, the judge presiding over the trial.

“Happy Memorial Day to All, including the Human Scum that is working so hard to destroy our Once Great Country, & to the Radical Left, Trump Hating Federal Judge in New York that presided,” he said on his Truth Social platform.

US President Joe Biden, who has largely avoided commenting on the trial so far, is expected to deliver remarks from the White House after the verdict, which could come before the end of the week, casting the former president as unfit for office regardless of the jury’s verdict.

Democrats have been hoping, so far in vain, that the four criminal indictments levelled against Mr Trump, three of which are unlikely to reach trial until after the election, would damage the former president, who remains the favourite to win the November election according to most polls and political betting markets.

“The trial has just reaffirmed everyone’s opinion of Trump. His supporters see a rigged system, while his opponents focus on his moral shortcomings,” Alex ­Conant, a Republican strategist in Washington, told the Wall Street Journal. “So far the trial is just background noise for voters, but if the noise gets loud enough, people will notice.”

Legal experts were uncertain as to what conclusion the jury of seven men and five women, including two lawyers, a teacher and an investment banker, would reach, given the politicised nature of the trial and unreliability of the prosecution’s chief witness, the former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen. “Most of us are really questioning the prosecution case, wondering whether it should have been brought with a central character who you can’t rely upon to tell you what day of the week it is,” Florida criminal defence lawyer Mark Eiglarsh told CNN.

The judge delayed the start of closing arguments to after the US Memorial Day long weekend in order to minimise the time between the delivery of closing arguments, expected to take most of Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), and the start of juror deliberations.

Experts said much would hinge on the instructions the judge gave the jury, given the complexity of the legal issues involved: Mr Trump must be found guilty of not only authorising the $US130,000 payments to Stormy Daniels but doing so for the express purpose of committing another crime, such as interfering with the 2016 presidential election.

To find him guilty, jurors, drawn from Manhattan, a district that voted overwhelmingly (85 per cent) for Mr Biden in 2020, will need to be unanimous.

An acquittal, or even a hung jury which would require only one obstinate juror, would almost certainly give the former president a burst of political momentum, leaving prosecutors with the embarrassing choice of whether seek another trial, which would not begin for months.

Mr Trump, who has repeatedly questioned the fairness of charges brought by Democrat District Attorney Alvin Bragg and denies all charges and an alleged affair with Ms Daniels, would almost certainly appeal any conviction.

If he is convicted, the judge would schedule a sentencing hearing as soon as several weeks later. Because the offences carry no minimum prison term, Judge Merchan would have significant discretion in determining any punishment, which could include a fine, probation or jail sentence.