US midterms: Republicans in striking distance of a rare victory in New York state

Soaring crime in New York City, including a 34 per cent jump in robbery, have put Republicans in striking distance of a rare victory in the deep-blue Democrat state.

Democrat governor Kathy Hochul, left, scrambling to update her political message after a late jump in support for Republican challenger Lee Zeldin, right, who has put crime at the centre of his campaign.

Soaring crime in New York City, including a 34 per cent jump in robbery, have put Republicans in striking distance of a rare victory in the deep-blue Democrat state, leaving Democrat governor Kathy Hochul scrambling to update her political message two weeks out from US midterm elections.

One of the biggest prizes in US politics, the governorship of New York State, looks to be up for grabs on November 8 after a late jump in support for Republican challenger Lee Zeldin, who has put crime at the centre of his campaign.

A series of recent polls show a dramatic tightening in the race for New York governor, including one by Co/efficient published last week that put Mr Zeldin, a 42-year-old Long Island Congressman who had been all but written off, ahead of Ms Hochul for the first time, 46 per cent to 45 per cent.

New York has had only had one Republican governor since 1975, George Pataki, who served three terms until 2007; and more than 60 per cent of New York voters opted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Ms Hochul, flanked by fellow Democrat New York City mayor Eric Adams, on Saturday (Sunday AEDT) announced 1,200 new daily police overtime shifts and extra security cameras for New York’s subway, where nine murders so far this year, up from an average of two before the pandemic according to the New York Times, have rattled confidence in law enforcement.

“You deserve to feel safe,” says Ms Hochul, 64, in a new TV advertisement released on the same day, which reportedly cost US$1 million-plus. “And as your governor, I won’t stop working until you do.”

New York governor Kathy Hochul.

New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin.

Ms Hochul had centred her campaign on Mr Zeldin’s support for Donald Trump, which included his voting against certifying the 2020 election, abortion rights, and the alleged threat to democracy from voting Republican, but rising crime and inflation are of greater concern to voters a little over two weeks from polling day.

“If Kathy Hochul ran against the rock, I’d vote for the rock,” 49-year old entrepreneur Josh Stylman, 49, a former registered Democrat, told The Australian.

“Crime is a factor, as is the struggling economy, but my primary issue is her handling of Covid, specifically, her ongoing support of masks for children and her refusal to say she won’t mandate the vaccine,” he added.

Transit crime in New York City, which includes the subway, has increased 41 per cent to 1,813 so far this year compared to the same period last year, according to New York Police Department data.

While the number of murders had declined 15 per cent to 341, every other crime category, including rape, and grand larceny had increased by double digit percentages, figures that come amid as spate of chilling videos of New York City subway crimes caught on camera do the rounds on social media.

A Quinnipiac poll of New Yorkers published last week found 28 per cent said crime was their most important issue, followed by inflation (20 per cent) and threats to democracy (14 per cent).

“Democrats have cruised to victory in gubernatorial races since 2006, but Governor Hochul’s narrow edge puts Republican Lee Zeldin well within striking distance of her,” said Quinnipiac University analyst Mary Snow.

Ms Hochul, the state’s first female governor, took over from Andrew Cuomo , who resigned last year after a series of sexual misconduct allegations.

“I’m a lifelong Democrat but am voting for Lee Zeldin to be the next Governor of New York. I believe his vow not to mess with abortion rights if elected & it’s obvious that Zeldin will be better for NY than Kathy Hochul,” Manhattan art dealer Eli Klein, 44, wrote on Twitter last week, one of many similar posts from ex Democrats.

After losing ground in polls over the northern summer following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade, a decision that returned the right to legislate on abortion to the states, Republicans’ fortunes have been steadily improving.

According to PredictIt, the GOP’s chance of winning control of the Senate in next month’s midterms elections have surged from 51 per cent two weeks ago to 65 per cent, after series of national polls suggest Democrats’ earlier lead had collapsed.

In Oregon, another Democrat stronghold, Republican challenger Christine Drazan is ahead of Democrat Tina Kotek in the race for the governor’s mansion. Incumbent governor Democrat Kate Brown, one of the handful of US governors to make masks compulsory outside during Covid19 pandemic, is term-limited.