At this critical stage of the count the big loser is, like 2016, the polls.
It’s still way too early to tell but so far Trump is well ahead in the popular vote at this stage.
That will change as the California votes come in but still it is unexpected.
Trump took Florida and its 29 electoral votes comfortably, meaning almost every Florida poll had got the state wrong.
It also seems that Trump’s energy at the end of the campaign has had an effect.
This is genuinely a desperately close result, at least at this stage.
Voters show age-old truth of democratic politics
So far this US presidential election is cross grained. Donald Trump looks well ahead in Florida but at this stage is disturbingly, from his point of view, behind in North Carolina and Ohio.
No Republican has ever won the presidency without also winning Ohio.
And the numbers counted in Ohio and North Carolina are sufficiently large as to be significant in themselves, not just as trends to watch for the rest of the count,
And yet Trump is also ahead in Virginia by a sizeable margin and at this stage ahead in Michigan.
But at this still early stage, Biden is actually ahead in Texas. He’s also ahead, on very early figures, in Pennsylvania.
In other words it’s still too early to tell.
But voters are illustrating an age old truth of democratic politics.
They don’t always do as they’re told.
Trump seems to be up among Hispanic voters in Miami and surrounding areas.
It also looks as though he has won Florida seniors which the polls had predicted he would lose.
But the electoral map remains highly divided and the outcome is still some distance away.
Ohio and North Carolina are ominous for Trump.
Who would ever have imagined that on election night he would be a long way ahead in Florida but in quite a lot of trouble overall.
If Biden goes on to win, the coalition of voters he is assembling seems quite different from the coalition that Obama assembled. So far, Biden is trending pretty well from his point of view in the mid-west. That too is ominous for Trump.
Hang on to your hats. It ain’t over yet.
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