Uncertain time for Israelis and Palestinians as ceasefire nears end

The end of a ceasefire is a hugely dangerous and uncertain moment for Israel, for the people of Gaza, and especially for the more than 190 hostages who will remain as prisoners of Hamas.

An image grab from a handout video released by the Hamas Media Office shows Hamas fighters accompanying newly released Israeli hostages Shiri Weiss (left) and her daughter Noga, to a Red Cross vehicle in the Gaza Strip early on Sunday. Picture: Hamas Media Office/AFP

As the four-day ceasefire to release hostages nears an end, the critical question is: What happens next?

This is a hugely dangerous and uncertain moment in this conflict for Israel, for the people of Gaza, and especially for the more than 190 hostages who will remain as prisoners of Hamas after the ceasefire expires.

Hamas may be tempted to try to buy more time and extend the ceasefire by offering more than the initial 50 hostages it has promised to hand back to Israel in return for the release of 150 Palestinian ­prisoners.

This would be welcomed by ­Israel, which will seek to recover as many hostages as it possibly can before resuming hostilities.

But Hamas is a hugely unreliable negotiating partner, as we saw at the weekend when it briefly threatened not to release the second group of hostages.

Hamas is also unlikely to agree to any deal that sees the release of all of the hostages because it sees them as a powerful diplomatic leverage with Israel and a physical barrier to an all-out military ­assault from Israel.

Yet the outpouring of immense national joy in Israel at the release of the initial group of hostages will place pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to prioritise the release of hostages over a military campaign against Hamas.

The price Israel is paying for the release of these hostages is an unfair one. The release of 50 Hamas civilian hostages who have committed no crimes has required the release of 150 Palestinians prisoners whose crimes range from minor offences to attempted murder and support for terrorism.

At what point, and how, does Israel make the critical judgment that Hamas is unwilling to release more hostages and that the war should be resumed? Israel is unlikely to resume hostilities exactly four days after this ceasefire if hostage negotiations are still alive for the release of more.

The danger for the remaining hostages is that if Hamas is not willing to release them now -– as part of a three-for-one exchange with Palestinian prisoners – then when will they ever be released?

A Palestinian prisoner (left) is welcomed by a relative after being released from Israeli jails in exchange for hostages released by Hamas from the Gaza Strip. Picture: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP

Can anyone be sure that Hamas will be inclined to release more hostages down the track once Israel resumes its all-out war to exterminate them?

These are the difficult questions Israel must confront in the coming days as it seeks to extract as many hostages as possible without undermining its military campaign to destroy the terror group.

A longer ceasefire would offer mixed blessings for Israel. On the downside, it would give more time for Hamas to regroup, which would prolong and complicate ­Israel’s military campaign to destroy the terror group.

But a longer ceasefire would maximise the prospects of the release of more hostages and also allow even greater supplies of desperately needed humanitarian supplies into Gaza.

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza must be addressed more directly by Israel if it wants to maintain the support of allies for its campaign against Hamas.

This war cannot continue indefinitely without a concerted and sustained effort to provide a largely displaced population of Gaza with the basics of food, water, medicine and fuel.

On many different levels, negotiations over the coming days will help to shape the future of this war.