Ukraine braces for eastern onslaught as peace talks stagnate

Western intelligence agencies say Vladimir Putin is being misled by his own fearful advisers about battlefield reverses.

A doctor shows Elyzaveta her newborn son in a Kyiv maternity hospital on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

Ukraine’s President has warned Russian troops are regrouping in preparation for a renewed assault in the east, as he dismissed Kremlin promises to scale back attacks on the capital Kyiv.

With shelling of Kyiv and Chernigiv continuing despite a Russian vow to “reduce” military activity by “a large margin”, Volodymyr Zelensky told his war-torn nation to brace for a new onslaught in the eastern Donbas region.

“We don’t believe anyone, not a single beautiful phrase,” Mr Zelensky said in a late-night video message. “There is an accumulation of Russian troops for new strikes in Donbas and we are preparing for it. We will fight for every metre of our land,” he said.

In five weeks of fighting, Russian forces have been humbled by dogged Ukrainian resistance, and forced to rethink ambitions to sack the capital or overthrow the democratically elected government.

Western intelligence agencies have been keen to underscore Russia’s military failings, and to push suggestions that President Vladimir Putin is being misled by his own fearful advisers about battlefield reverses.

“We’ve seen Russian soldiers, short of weapons and morale, refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft,” Britain’s GCHQ spy agency chief Jeremy Fleming said on Thursday, after similar claims from the White House. ­Citing US intelligence, White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said an angry Mr Putin “felt misled by the Russian military”.

Military experts believe that with thousands of Russian troops killed and many thousands more injured, Moscow has no choice but to ditch efforts to advance simultaneously along multiple axes in the north, east and south. There are growing indications that Russia’s focus is turning to the east, and capturing more towns and cities in Donbas including the besieged port city of Mariupol, even as the long-range assault on other cities continues.

Russia’s Defence Ministry on Thursday claimed that was the plan all along. “The first stage of the special military operation,” said Major General Igor Konashenkov, was “to force the enemy to concentrate its forces, means, resources and military equipment to hold on to high populated areas”.

He said the aim was to degrade and tie up Ukrainian forces so they could not be used “in the main direction of our armed forces in Donbas. All these goals have been met”.

Some believe that Russia’s aim now will be to capture territory in the south to strengthen Moscow’s hand when it comes to negotiating peace. Marcus Hellyer of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. suggested the new strategy was “to occupy all of Donbas, occupy as much of the Black Sea coast as they can and use that as the facts on the ground for their negotiating strategy”.

Ukraine’s general staff on Thursday reported that some Russian units had already left northwestern Ukraine for Moscow-allied Belarus, and there was a “regrouping” of units of the Eastern Military District. They also claimed that Russia was preparing to create “another pseudo-republic in the Kherson region”. Since 2014, Russia has backed two similar breakaway Donbas statelets in Luhansk and Donetsk and recently recognised their independence. The fate of these two self-styled people’s republics is central to ongoing peace talks, with Kyiv insisting they are still part of Ukraine. Russia has long sought a land link between the republics and also-occupied Crimea via ­Mariupol, which is now encircled by Russian forces.

Tens of thousands of civilians are trapped in the city without ready access to food, water or medicines. Russia’s offer of a Mariupol ceasefire from 10am on Thursday (6pm AEDT) – allowing trapped civilians to leave – was dismissed by Ukrainian authorities as “another manipulation”.

Ombudswoman Lyudmyla Denisova accused Russian forces of striking a clearly marked Red Cross warehouse near the city.

There are few signs of attacks on civilian targets abating, despite peace talks in Istanbul and another round of video talks slated for Friday. Both sides initially said the Istanbul meeting had made progress, but the Kremlin on Wednesday night played down hopes of a breakthrough. Against that backdrop, Ukraine’s Western allies appear ready to step up military aid for Kyiv and sanctions on Russia.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke of British military aid “going up a gear”, and the White House said President Joe Biden discussed “additional capabilities” in an almost hour-long phone call with Mr Zelensky. The White House said that could include “anti-ship capability” to hit Russian vessels in the Black Sea.

AFP