UK election: Labour win a ‘major risk’ as Johnson tumbles in polls

Shock Tory polling shows Boris Johnson’s lead shrinking and a Labour coalition firming.

Boris Johnson and journalists on a plane bound for Birmingham. Picture: AFP

Shock private polling for the Conservative Party shows a Labour coalition forming government is now a “major risk” a day before Britain’s general election.

The Tory lead has shrunk in the past week — one pollster had them just six points ahead on Tuesday, which could leave Britain with another hung parliament.

The dramatic turnaround in Tory fortunes leaves Prime Minister Boris Johnson fighting to hold his seat.

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The biggest threat to a Tory majority is tactical voting. Mr Johnston has begun highlighting its dangers, saying “a hung parliament is a clear and present danger’’ amid “sophisticated and well-financed attempts under way to prevent a Conservative victory’’.

Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell has predicted “surprising results across the country that could be a bigger shock than in 2017” when Labour pegged back a huge lead to cause prime minister Theresa May to lose her majority.

Private polling reveals the Tories are not getting the big Brexit bounce in the Midlands and northern seats of Northampton South, Derby North and Southport, which they had factored in to form a majority government.

The Tories had targeted 40 traditional Labour seats that voted to leave the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum by more than 55 per cent. The swing required to win those seats was less than 7.5 percentage points.

Tories fear large numbers of voters in these electorates are so torn over the election — and believe health and welfare issues are more important than Brexit — that they may stay with Labour or not vote at all.

Insiders also say complacency about the headline lead of the Tory party over the past few weeks may encourage traditional Conservative voters to believe they can cast a consequence-free protest vote.

A private memo sent on the weekend from Michael Brooks, who heads Sir Lynton Crosby’s polling company CTF Partners, to Tory campaign manager Isaac Levido says the chances of a Corbyn-led coalition had been seriously underestimated.

The memo warned that if 12 of the Tories’ 298 seats fall to the Scottish nationalists or the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives would be on the opposition benches. Labour doesn’t need to gain a single seat for that to happen.

“They (Labour) do not need to gain a single seat, they can simply rely on the SNP to make gains in Scotland or the Liberal Democrats to make gains in southern Conservative seats and Jeremy Corbyn will be in No 10,’’ Mr Brooks said in the memo, which has been published in the British newspaper The Telegraph.

CTF Partners polling with seat-by-seat personal interviews is more intensive than other polls, which rely on telephone or internet surveys.

Mr Brooks said “as little as a 1 to 2 per cent movement in the current vote in a handful of seats” could hand the keys of 10 Downing Street to Mr Corbyn.

Two major anti-Brexit groups, People’s Vote and Best for Britain have been campaigning for tactical voting to unseat Tory candidates across the nation. Under Britains’ first-past-the-post and non-compulsory voting, Best for Britain says 40,000 votes from 46 million registered voters across 36 of the 650 seats will determine the election result.

“It’s game on,’’ Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said.

The Prime Minister’s personal vulnerability in his seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is magnified, not just through tactical voting, but because thousands of new young student voters from the Brunel University have been mobilised to vote for the Labour candidate former student union leader Ali Milani, 25.

Mr Johnson won with a majority of 5034 in 2017, a big decrease on the 2015 election margin of 10,695 and one of the slimmest margins in the nation’s history for a seat held by a prime minister.

Polling analyst company Datapraxis says 6300 votes could also move against Mr Johnson in tactical voting. Datapraxis says if just 10 per cent more young voters turn out to vote than in 2017, Mr Johnson’s lead will be vulnerable.

But others say “the rush to decapitate Johnson’’ is taking away resources that could be better deployed in more marginal seats.

“It’s a long shot,’’ said Best for Britain political analyst Lewis Baston on the odds Johnson will lose his seat, arguing that being Prime Minister gives him a boost.

“If he is beaten it would overturn a lot of what we think we know about public opinion and polling. Stranger things will happen, but it’s a real long shot.’’

He added the focus on Johnson “is a fly trap for opposition activists, really”.