Tsai Ing-wen set to ride turmoil in Hong Kong to victory in Taiwan

Taiwan’s independence leaning President Tsai Ing-wen looks set to be re-elected on Saturday.

Tsai Ing-wen on the hustings in Taipei at the weekend. Picture: AP

Taiwan’s independence leaning President Tsai Ing-wen looks set to be re-elected on Saturday, with her stakes boosted by six months of protests in Hong Kong.

The 63-year-old Ms Tsai, who is standing again as the presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, has been polling at more than 50 per cent in recent months, well ahead of her main opponent, Han Kuo-yu, representing the more pro-Beijing Kuomintang.

Ms Tsai, whose chances of re-election for a second four-year term looked slim a year ago, has capitalised on the increasing unhappiness by young people in Hong Kong about their future.

A year ago, China’s President Xi Jinping argued that Taiwan, an island of 23 million people, could be brought under Chinese rule using the one country, two systems approach in play for administering Hong Kong and Macau.

The speech prompted a strong response from Ms Tsai, who stoutly declared she would never allow this to happen. This was followed from mid-2019 by the bitter protest movement in Hong Kong, sparked by plan by its government to allow extraditions to mainland China, which further tarnished the argument that “one country, two systems” was a viable option for Taiwan.

Ms Tsai was in political trouble after her party lost heavily in local council elections in November 2018, forcing her to step down as chair of the DPP.

It was at that election that Mr Han, 62, burnished his political credentials by winning the mayor’s race in the erstwhile DPP stronghold of Kaohsiung, and early last year he held a comfortable lead over Ms Tsai in opinion polls. But nightly TV images of protesters clashing with police in Hong Kong have helped her arguments about the need for Taiwan to keep Beijing at arm’s length.

“Hong Kong today, Taiwan tomorrow” was one of Ms Tsai’s campaign slogans. She launched an emotional advertising campaign using a split screen to contrast the calm and prosperity of Taiwan with the fear and violence in Hong Kong, urging the island’s voters to “stand up” for democracy and freedom.

The one country, two systems concept, it said, was actually about “autocracy”.

Han Kuo-yu at a rally in Taipei this week. Picture: Getty Images

The results of the election could well anger Beijing, which has been strongly critical of Ms Tsai since she took office in 2016. Beijing has worked to further isolate Taiwan in international forums, targeting Pacific Island nations to drop their diplomatic recognition of Taiwan for China.

Beijing is also angered at recent US support for Taipei. The Trump administration has sold Taiwan more than $US2bn worth of arms, including Abrams tanks.

The campaign has featured claims and counter-claims, with the DPP accusing China of being behind disinformation campaigns about its policies.

Questions have also been asked about allegations by Chinese-born Wang Ligiang, who is seeking asylum in Australia, that he was recruited by Beijing’s spy agencies to undermine the elections. In November, police detained Chinese businessman Xiang Xin following Mr Wang’s allegations that he was involved in a plot to destabilise the elections in favour of the KMT.

Taiwan has ruled itself since the KMT fled to the island in 1949 after Mao Zedong’s communists won the battle to run China. Beijing maintains the island is a renegade province that needs to be brought under Chinese rule, by force if necessary.

While Mr Han rejects the one country, two systems formula for reuniting with Beijing, he has argued that Taiwan would be better off by building better ties with mainland China.

“Taiwan’s elections are important, not just because they are a living, breathing example of a modern Chinese society that is also a democracy,” Lowy Institute senior fellow Richard McGregor said on Friday.

“The future of Taiwan is in many respects the future of Asia. If there is ever to be a showdown over Beijing’s territorial demands and US power in the region, it is likely to be in Taiwan, which sits in the heart of what is known as the ‘first island chain’, which cuts off the Chinese navy’s direct access to the Pacific Ocean.”

Mr McGregor said Taiwan played an “outsized role in hi-tech global value chains” as home to some of the world’s most advanced computer chip companies. It was also “pivotal to Xi’s core political objectives, to unify China and make the country a wealthy superpower on par with the US”.