Trump impeachment: Acquittal almost certain after Senate vote

After 45 GOP senators voted a trial was unconstitutional, Dems will find it all but impossible to win over the 17 they need.

Donald Trump farewells supporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on January 20. Picture: AFP.

Donald Trump is almost certain to be acquitted in his forthcoming Senate impeachment trial after 45 Republican Senators voted that the trial was unconstitutional.

The 55 to 45 Senate vote on Wednesday ruled that the impeachment trial was constitutional and would proceed. But the fact that 45 Republicans voted that a trial was unconstitutional shows it will be all but impossible for Democrats to win over the 17 Republicans they need to convict the former president.

The vote showed how powerful Mr Trump’s influence remains over Republicans despite him no longer being in office.

A two-thirds majority is needed to convict Mr Trump in the 100 seat chamber in which both Democrats and Republicans hold 50 seats.

Only five Senate Republicans voted that the trial was constitutional, although that does not necessarily mean they will vote along with Democrats to convict the president.

The five senators were Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse and Patrick Toomey.

Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has been highly critical of Mr Trump’s behaviour, voted that a trial would be unconstitutional.

The move by Republican Senator Rand Paul to force a vote on whether the trial was constitutional was aimed at showing the Democrats how futile a trial would be.

Constitutional scholars are divided on whether an impeachment trial of a president can be held after he leaves office.

The Constitution does not say either way, leaving experts divided on the issue.

Democrats argue that a trial is constitutional because otherwise it would allow a president to commit crimes near the end of his time in office without ever being held accountable.

Many Republicans argue that once a president leaves office, the notion of a trial to remove him from office is moot and therefore unconstitutional.

The only precedent was in 1876 when the Secretary of War William Belknap resigned moments before he was impeached by the House. A Senate trial, in which he was acquitted, subsequently took place even though he was out of office.

However some Republicans are using the constitutional issue as a cover to avoid having to declare their position on the substance of the charges made against the former president on incitement of insurrection.

Mr Trump has made it clear that he will seek to undermine the political careers of any Republicans, both in the House and the Senate, who vote against him.

Ten Republicans voted in the House to impeach Mr Trump and the former president is reportedly plotting retribution against them in forthcoming primary contests.

Senator Paul said the vote showed that “the impeachment trial is dead on arrival.”

“Impeachment is for removal from office, and the accused here has already left office,” he said, arguing that the trial would “drag our great country down into the gutter of rancour and vitriol, the likes of which has never been seen in our nation’s history.”

Prior to the vote, Republican senators had lunch with Jonathan Turley, a George Washington University law professor who argues that a former president cannot be tried for impeachment.

Mr Trump has already been impeached by the House for inciting supporters on January 6 who then stormed the capitol building, leaving five people dead.

The Senate trial is due to start on February 9 after Democrats agreed to delay the start to allow Mr Trump’s legal team to prepare a defence.

Republican senator Ron Johnson called for the Democrats to abandon the trial after so many Republicans voted that it was unconstitutional.

“I hope my colleagues will look at it from the standpoint, is it wise to do this?” he said. “I would hope we would end this now. It’s just not wise. It’s not healing. It’s divisive.”

But another Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski said: “Impeachment is not solely about removing a president, it is also a matter of political consequence.”

Democrat Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said: “The theory that the impeachment of a former official is unconstitutional is flat-out wrong by every frame of analysis.”