Trump back politically, but legally he’s still in the dog house

AI-generated deepfake image of former president Donald Trump sitting in prison.

On the day Nikki Haley was campaigning before an enthusiastic crowd of at least 500 in Salem, New Hampshire on Monday night, (Tuesday AEDT), Donald Trump was sitting in a courtroom in New York City, once again.

The former president’s hopes of testifying personally at a defamation trial brought by E. Jean Carroll were dashed by a sick juror in a case whose outcome could damage only Trump’s bottom line, and perhaps his pride.

But he’s going to need a lot more than sick jurors to wriggle out of his other indictments, which could easily see the former president behind bars before November, and dash his re-election chances.

So far Trump has squeezed as much political capital as possible from his menagerie of 91 criminal charges, cementing himself as the presumptive Republican Party nominee for president and edging ahead of Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch in most national polls.

But such gains could evaporate quickly if Trump were convicted before the November poll, especially for the most high profile and politically charged allegation: that he sought to overturn the 2020 election, which is schedule to start as soon as March 4.

In this case, he’ll be tried by a jury likely to loathe him in Washington, where 93 per cent of voters supported Joe Biden in the 2020 election. And Judge Tanya Chutkan, who will preside over the case, appears to have already made up her mind.

“The people who mobbed that Capitol were there in fealty, in loyalty, to one man … who, by the way, remains free to this day,” she said from the bench in hearings related to January 6 participants in October 2022. She could sentence Trump to 55 years in prison if convicted on all four counts.

Quite aside from the prospect of time behind bars, Trump’s lead over Biden would reverse if he were convicted of any of these four charges, according to a new Harvard University-Harris poll of over 2300 voters conducted last week: rather than leading by seven percentage points, he would trail Biden by four.

In such circumstances, he might not have the opportunity to pardon himself as president, which most legal experts believe he could.

Voters cared much less about any convictions stemming from allegations he kept top secret documents at his private home in Mar-A-Lago, a trial scheduled to begin in Florida in May, the poll also found: Trump remained in the lead.

AI-generated deepfake image of Donald Trump being arrested.

Moreover, the former president will enjoy a more favourable judge in that case, Aileen Cannon, whom he appointed in 2020. Yet all this could be cold comfort: these charges against Trump are the strongest – open and shut, according to many legal experts, curbing the judge’s discretion to convict on any of the 40 counts of wrongdoing which in theory could attract a maximum jail time of 450 years.

The other two sets of indictments, over failing to declare hush money payments to a porn star as a campaign expense, and seeking to manipulate the Georgia 2020 election outcome, offer the president greater grounds for optimism.

The first, brought by Democrat attorney Alvin Bragg in Manhattan is widely considered so political and ridiculous, even by lawyers vehemently opposed to Trump, it’s likely ultimately to fail on appeal.

The second, a set of election racketeering charges brought by Democrat district attorney Fani Willis, initially posed serious threat to Trump: neither the president, nor Republican governor Brian Kemp could pardon him following any conviction on 13 charges each of which triggers a minimum sentence of five years.

But allegations Willis corruptly appointed her under-qualified lover to the prosecution, and then personally enjoyed lavish holidays with him using some of the $US653,000 he was paid, could derail the entire case.

Most Americans believe Trump won’t ultimately be convicted of any of the 91 charges, according to the same Harris poll. Trump better hope they are right.