There’s no putting lipstick on this pig of a Brexit deal
At first blush, it looks like Boris Johnson has negotiated a poor deal with the EU. Whether it can get through parliament remains doubtful.
He will use all his justly famous flair, panache, personality and salesmanship to dress this sow’s ear as a silk purse, but it looks a horrible mess.
It would seem that Johnson, too, finally lost his bottle.
Whether it can get through parliament remains extremely doubtful.
The deal as provisionally announced would put Northern Ireland at a terrific disadvantage, as it would simultaneously have to apply both British standards and rules and EU standards and rules in what would be a regime of dizzying complexity.
Similarly, the withdrawal agreement changes Northern Ireland’s status without changing the status of the rest of Britain.
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That is a fundamental breach of the Good Friday Agreement, as the Northern Ireland Unionists were assured that there would never be a change to their constitutional status within the United Kingdom without their consent through a referendum.
It is true that after a number of years the Northern Irish Assembly would get to vote on whether the new arrangements continued.
But that would be democracy radically postponed, and indeed that vote could presumably be taken away from them by a subsequent government in the meantime.
This interim deal doesn’t end the Brexit nightmare.
It is only an agreement for an interim withdrawal, just as Theresa May’s earlier, much-unlamented, deal was, and Britain will still have to negotiate all the substance of its future relationship with the EU over the next couple of years.
Assuming the EU continues not to offer the Brits a decent deal, poor old Blighty could find itself in a few years’ time exactly where it is today, with the alternatives being total surrender to the EU, a fudged interim agreement that preserves EU sovereignty, or the final alternative of a no-deal Brexit — that is, trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation rules and terms.
It seems that Johnson lost confidence in his ability to bring off a no-deal Brexit and survive politically.
However, this is anything but decided. If the House of Commons rejects this deal, as there is every chance that it might, then Johnson may revert to the no-deal option.
However, the Prime Minister will be in a much weaker position to sell this by then.
It looks very much like the EU has done to Johnson what they did to May — strung the negotiations out to an insane degree and then imposed an interim agreement that is a dog’s breakfast of a muddle, which involves not really leaving at all and putting off the real negotiations into the never-never.
Bojo has frequently shown himself cleverer than his critics.
Perhaps he still has a rabbit to pull out of his hat.
But I wouldn’t bet on it.
At first blush, it looks like Boris Johnson has negotiated a very poor deal with the EU.