Amid a flurry of diplomatic moves in recent days, one overarching theme has become clear – Europe and Donald Trump are getting sick of the Russian leader stringing them along without offering any concessions towards ending the war.
First it was the European leaders who gave Russia until early this week to agree to a 30-day ceasefire to see sanctions increased.
Then Putin sought to buy more time by suggesting face-to-face talks between Russia and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul on Thursday.
When Trump strongly backed these talks, Zelensky cleverly went one step further by saying he would be there in person and would be waiting for Putin.
The Russian leader is running out of time and out of options to keep delaying the push for peace from Trump.
Trump has so far been remarkably lenient and patient with Putin, apparently believing that he can cajole him to the peace table to strike a deal to end the three year war.
Trump has been the one to offer all of the potential concessions in any peace deal, often to Zelensky’s annoyance. These include banning Ukraine from joining NATO and freezing the war roughly along the current frontline with the US recognising Russian territorial gains as a part of Russia. Trump has also refused to offer any US security guarantees for Ukraine or necessarily support the stationing of European troops on Ukrainian territory as a part of any peace deal.
In response Putin has offered precisely nothing. Russia maintains that basing any European troops in Ukraine to safeguard that country’s security is a non-starter as is any future Western military aid to Ukraine.
Putin has given no public concessions which would enable a peace deal on anything but extreme pro-Russian terms. Any peace deal based on Putin’s demands as they currently stand would leave Ukraine vulnerable to another Russian invasion in the future.
The Europeans have shown their frustration with Putin by threatening more sanctions unless he agrees to a ceasefire. Trump has also shown growing signs of being frustrated by Putin’s intransigence.
Putin must know time is running out. If he does not turn up in Istanbul to meet with Zelensky, then he will not look serious about peace. The tipping point here is Trump’s patience. Unless Putin changes course, Trump is likely to abandon him having deduced – after months of appeasement – that Putin simply does not want peace.
If so, anything could happen. Trump would almost certainly carry out his threat of hitting Russia with every sanction imaginable, although heavy US sanctions over the past three years have so far failed to stop Putin. Trump would also end his efforts to bring Putin and Russia in from the cold by backing its re-entry to international forums and trade. But if Trump loses patience with Putin, he would then face the dilemma of how far the US goes to help defend Ukraine through the ongoing supply of American weaponry. Trump and his MAGA base are strongly opposed to indefinite US assistance to Ukraine, yet Trump also would not want to be the president who effectively surrendered Ukraine to Russian forces.
This coming week will be critical for the future of Ukraine as the West seeks to gauge whether Putin is serious about peace. Time is running out for Putin to show that he really wants this war to end.
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Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has boldly called Vladimir Putin’s bluff by challenging the Russian dictator to meet him in Istanbul this week as the West becomes increasingly sceptical about whether Putin wants peace.