Gaza plan a red line for Egypt and Jordan. Will it backfire?

Donald Trump’s threat to withdraw aid unless Egypt and Jordan accept Gazans is unlikely to sway them. They’ll simply look to rich Gulf countries or even China, a key investor, to bail them out.

Donald Trump (R) meets with King Abdullah II of Jordan in the Oval Office of the White House. Picture: AFP.

Days after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Egypt was prepared to fend off what it viewed as a national security threat: the influx of hundreds of thousands of Gazan refugees.

Now that President Trump has suggested the territory should be cleared of its residents, primarily to neighbouring Arab states, the Egyptians’ pre-emptive concern is more relevant than ever.

There has been debate in Cairo on what it would take for President Sisi to agree to host Palestinians from Gaza. Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, had been pushing the idea for months before Trump adopted it.

But Egypt’s security hawks have drawn a line and are unlikely to embrace a plan they believe could destabilise their country. Jordan, another target of Trump’s pressure, shares their fears.

“For both Egypt and Jordan, even if they are authoritarian states, public opinion really matters,” said Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London.

“Since the war in Gaza there has been a repoliticisation of society, particularly over the issue of sovereignty and self-determination for Palestinians. This has the potential to spill over in both of these countries … Protests [in Egypt] were quickly politicised against Sisi and protesters not only chanted in support of Palestinians but also against their own economic deprivation.”

While both countries have benefited from US aid – largely for the military – with more than US$2 billion a year between them, Trump’s threat to rethink that support is unlikely to sway them. They will simply look to the rich Gulf countries or other foreign benefactors to bail them out.

China is a key investor in the region. Trade between Beijing and the Middle East and North Africa reached dollars 368 billion in 2022, compared with dollars 144 billion between the US and the region over the same period. Russia has also historically been a key partner for Egypt, though its influence has declined in recent years.

Both Egypt and Jordan have to contend with populations that are already squeezed by economic crises and the rising cost of living, and harbour a deep-seated loathing of Israel.

For Jordan, a key security and intelligence partner for Israel and the West that already hosts two million Palestinian refugees, the question of accepting is an “existential issue”, Vakil said.

Indeed, if Palestinians were expelled from Gaza, rare region-wide protests could erupt. “You could definitely see protests spread across the Arab world, including to countries that don’t have a history of protest like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. That would be quite astonishing,” she added.

In Egypt, its military rulers will be also be mindful of the fact that they only recently quashed Islamist domestic opposition, not to mention an Islamic State insurgency in Sinai, which neighbours Gaza.

Sisi fears that the overthrowal of Bashar al-Assad in Syria by Islamist rebels will revive his own opposition. He can little afford to be seen as aiding Israel.

Cairo will be weighing its options again should Trump choose to suspend aid.

Above all, as Trump meets Arab leaders, they will be hoping the president simply changes his mind.

The Times