Dig in or run? It’s time for Volodymyr Zelensky to choose
Volodymyr Zelensky last week quoted Hamlet’s “to be or not to be” to describe his country’s existential war with Russia. But the Ukraine president might now be more inclined to borrow from the Clash. Should he stay or should he go?
In his unprecedented address to the British House of Commons on Tuesday, Volodymyr Zelensky quoted Hamlet’s “to be or not to be”, expressing to MPs just how existential his country’s war with Russia is.
When weighing up his own immediate future, the president of Ukraine might be more inclined to borrow from the Clash. Should he stay or should he go? With his courageous decision to remain in Kyiv during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, his determined, rough-hewn social media posts and general air of wit and defiance, Zelensky has fortified a nation under unimaginable strain over the past fortnight.
But with Russian forces squeezing Kyiv, hoping to encircle the capital, and teams of assassins reportedly on the hunt for him, Zelensky now has a dilemma. Leave and the Russians will call him a coward and claim a much-needed propaganda victory. Stay and he could face capture and death, as well as endangering the precarious Ukrainian line of presidential succession.
Ukrainian politicians are torn.
“I want him to stay but I would understand if he decides to leave,” said Oleksandr Danylyuk, Ukraine’s former finance minister.
“At the end of the day the leadership needs to be preserved. If he decides to leave I would understand it, I think many Ukrainians would too. The fact is he already stayed during a difficult time; he already proved himself not a coward.”
It’s difficult to overstate the importance of Zelensky, 44, to the Ukrainian resistance. Of course the war itself is being run by the military, and millions of ordinary Ukrainians are doing their part too, but Zelensky’s role as a figurehead has enormous symbolic power. Had he fled Kyiv at the beginning of the war and set up a government in Lviv or even Warsaw, as some urged him to do, the whole tone of Ukraine’s dogged resistance would have been different.
“It’s critical that he stayed in Kyiv,” said Yaroslav Zhelezniak, the parliamentary leader of Voice, a Ukrainian opposition party. “A huge proportion of our population is resisting this invasion. One of the key factors is the leader, the chief commander of our army, who shows that we are not afraid.”
Zhelezniak and Danylyuk both believe that Zelensky would rather die in Kyiv than give Putin the satisfaction of seeing him leave the capital. “He will stay in Kyiv for the last soldier, of that I am sure,” said Zhelezniak. “It means a lot.”
Danylyuk is a political ally of Zelensky’s and helped him get elected. While others speculate whether the president might evacuate or not, Danylyuk has no doubts. “I know him as a very determined person who wants to be in the history books,” he said. “I couldn’t imagine that he would run away, it’s not in his character. He wasn’t afraid. This is his main achievement.”
Part of Zelensky’s appeal is the sheer improbability of his rise to global statesman. He grew up speaking Russian in the town of Kryvyi Rih, the son of Oleksandr and Rymma, a computer scientist and an engineer. He found fame young as a comic prodigy, establishing in 1997 a troupe, Kvartal 95, named after his neighbourhood in Kryvyi Rih.
He became a fixture on Ukrainian television, won Dancing with the Stars in 2006 and voiced Paddington Bear for the Ukrainian versions of Paddington and Paddington 2. In 2015, he starred in Servant of the People, playing a school history teacher who ends up becoming president after a video of him ranting about corruption went viral. He was famous, but no one took him seriously. Then art became life in 2019 when he ran for president, hosting razzle-dazzle campaign events featuring scantily clad women and crushing his opponent, the incumbent president (and confectionary billionaire) Petro Poroshenko.
The early years of his presidency were bumpy. Donald Trump tried to twist his arm into investigating presidential rival Joe Biden by threatening to withhold lethal military aid. Zelensky, who came to power on an anti-corruption message, was also criticised for his closeness to Ihor Kolomoyskyi, a Ukrainian oligarch.
In the build-up to war, Zelensky was criticised for his breezy belief that Russia would not invade. But the outbreak of hostilities tested his deepest qualities and he has not been found wanting.
“Wartime is a time for Zelensky, in this case he is one of the best,” Zhelezniak said. “I have a lot of disagreement with him on how democracy in Ukraine should work, but he has my full support.”
Zelensky’s background as an actor, comedian and performer has allowed him to communicate deftly with his own people and the international community, at times consciously channelling Winston Churchill, as he did on Tuesday when he told the Commons that Ukrainians would “fight in the forests”.
He has projected himself as the anti-Putin, young where Putin is old and comic where Putin is entirely grim. His khaki-shirted bunker shots hunkering down with his cabinet and generals draw a contrast to Putin’s preposterously long tables and stilted video calls with staff.
Another powerful asset is his wife Olena, 44, a writer for Kvartal 95 who also grew up in Kryvyi Rih. The pair met at school and dated for eight years before marrying. They have a daughter, Oleksandra, 17, and a son, Kyrylo, 9. With her 2.5 million Instagram followers, Olena has wielded her soft power expertly. She recently released an open letter to the world’s media decrying the “mass murder of Ukrainian civilians”.
This well-crafted public relations drive has won huge sympathy from western publics and politicians, strengthening their will to act against Putin. But there are limits: Zelensky’s calls for a no-fly zone or demands that Polish MiG fighters be delivered to Ukraine have gone unheeded by the White House.
“He’s put a human face on the plight of the Ukrainian people,” said John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine and head of the Eurasia Centre at the Atlantic Council. “Frankly he’s shaming western leaders into doing more, with some success, but only some.”
But can he stay alive? There’s no doubt Putin wants Zelensky dead and has reportedly sent in teams of Wagner Group mercenaries to kill him. The adulation has clearly bothered the Russians, with state TV now pumping out slurs about Zelensky, claiming he’s a cocaine addict, already living in Warsaw and, perhaps worst of all, a “puppet of MI6”.
“The Russians are spreading fake news about our leader’s flight,” said Oleksandr Kornienko, deputy speaker of the Ukrainian parliament. “They understand his importance for our struggle.”
Despite the Russian menace, Zelensky is still showing his exhausted face in public and holding meetings in government buildings. Yesterday (Saturday) he released a video from central Kyiv accusing Russia of waging a “war of annihilation” but claiming optimistically that “victory for Ukraine and peace for Ukraine are achievable”.
The Russian forces seeking to encircle Kyiv may have other ideas. But Zelensky’s allies believe he will not have to flee, arguing that the city is heavily fortified; even ordinary citizens are well stocked with petrol bombs. “All our government buildings are prepared for war,” said Danlyluk. “Bunkers, passages, everything was prepared for this. Unfortunately the Russians know it too, because it was all built in Soviet times, but it’s a huge system. We can protect our leader, no problem. It would have to be a betrayal inside to assassinate him.”
But what if the worst does happen? Next in line to the presidency is the speaker of the house, Ruslan Stefanchuk, 46, but the country would need an election to choose a new president, which is unlikely in the circumstances. The Russians might also seek to bring in a puppet leader of their own, possibly Viktor Yanukovych who was deposed in 2014.
“The death or capture of an inspiring war leader would be a major blow, but by no means a fatal blow,” said Herbst. “The Ukrainian people as a whole are determined to maintain their freedom, their sovereignty. That is not dependent on Zelensky.”
For now at least, Zelensky seems determined to risk his life to remain alongside his fellow citizens. “He’s extremely stubborn,” said Danlyluk. “I just know he’ll stay.”
THE SUNDAY TIMES
