CPAC: All the signs suggest Don Trump Jr can win crowds but not votes
Donald Trump is confident that he remains the biggest political superstar on the planet. I have news for him.
Donald Trump will stride into Orlando, Florida, today for his first public engagement since Joe Biden’s inauguration, confident that he remains the biggest political superstar on the planet. The Conservative Political Action conference (CPAC) – the most important gathering of Republican Party activists — is home to his most ardent supporters. The mere mention of his name guarantees whoops and cheers. He is certain to receive a rip-roaring ovation.
I have news for Trump, though. Republican activists love him, but do not want him to lead them in the 2024 presidential elections. This may come as a shock to his camp, which has been preparing the ground for a whopping comeback. Mark Meadows, his former White House chief of staff, said on Fox News as the conference opened that Trump was already “planning for the next administration”.
“You’re going to see a speech on Sunday that not only talks about the beginning, but what the future may look like,” he said. “I spoke to President Trump last night (Saturday) for a fairly lengthy conversation, where we’re talking about America, where it needs to go … the ‘America first’ agenda.”
Meadows added: “What we will see on Sunday is the start of planning for the next administration, and I can tell you, the people at the top of that list all have Trump as their last name.”
By that, he meant not just Trump, but also his son Don Jr and daughter Ivanka — and perhaps even Lara Trump, the wife of his son Eric, who has political ambitions of her own. I did not detect wild enthusiasm for any of them as candidates. Nobody criticised the former president — far from it — but they are casting around for a successor.
“He did a very good job as president, but there doesn’t have to be a Trump — or son or daughter — in the ring,” said Bill Olson, a former army sergeant and Republican congressional candidate. “It’s not a cult of personality.”
There were plenty of alternative candidates on display at the Hyatt Regency hotel, home to this year’s gathering. It is the CPAC’s role to stage a beauty contest after every election defeat. Ted Cruz, the senator for Texas, joked that the place reminded him of Des Moines, home of the Iowa caucuses, traditionally the first state to choose presidential nominees.
Cruz, thought to be in the doghouse since his trip to Mexico during the big freeze in his home state, curried favour with party members by saying, “Let me tell you, Donald J Trump ain’t going anywhere” – before roaring “Freedom!” at top volume. He was rewarded with a standing ovation.
The Florida governor Ron DeSantis, a rising star for keeping his state open in the midst of the pandemic, did not mention Trump by name but said: “We will not go back to the failed Republican establishment of yesteryear.” And there were huge cheers for Josh Hawley, the Missouri senator who refused to certify Biden’s victory, even after the storming of the Capitol.
Trump merchandise was everywhere: hats, totes, T-shirts. A Hyatt employee roamed the corridors with a “Masks required” sign, much to the annoyance of those present, but Maga — Make America great again — ones proliferated.
The whole scene seemed so definitively to be Trump home turf that I expected to find fervent support for his return to frontline politics. The former president had made his political bones at the CPAC in 2011, when he was invited to speak by GOProud, the conservative gay group — not always popular with other Republicans – and wowed everybody there by attacking abortion laws and supporting gun rights.
Yet this weekend it appeared that activists had come to praise him — and bury him in syrup. Karlyn, 40, told me she had been a Democrat until Trump had won her over. Although she sported a Maga mask, she said: “I’m not sure it’s the best idea for him to run again. The media is just going to lie and lie and turn people against him again. Ron DeSantis is the man, or maybe Josh Hawley.” She described herself as “iffy” about Cruz, though did not elaborate further.
Tristan, 22, an admirer of Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, in pinstripes and a wide double-breasted suit, said: “While I’m open to the idea of Trump running in 2024, I think he serves best as a kingmaker. The big problem with the populist movement in America is there is not a lot of funding for it. Perhaps Trump could create a media organisation to help choose who gets the spotlight.” I do not suppose Trump will thank him for that suggestion.
Anna, 16, a teenage “influencer” from North Carolina, said: “I would like to see someone new who can embody his ideas and policies. The future is going to be less about Trump and more about Trumpism.” She predicted the baby-faced, alt-right YouTube activist Nick Fuentes had a big future, but thought Tucker Carlson, the Fox News host, should inherit Trump’s mantle: “Tucker has an actual chance to run and is older and more experienced.”
Kira, 34, said she had moved from Los Angeles to Florida to get away from high taxes. She advised Don Jr to run for governor of California – “He would win by a landslide” – but claimed he lacked the experience to be president. As for Trump, she said sorrowfully: “You see, I feel America doesn’t deserve him.”
By 2024, she reckoned Trump’s moment would have passed. Her money was on Cruz. “Ted Cruz has a lot of experience. He’s established, but not part of the establishment,” she said.
Despite this, Kira was hoping a bizarre “March 4 miracle” that QAnon conspiracy theorists have been buzzing about all week – that Trump will somehow be inaugurated as president on Friday – will come to pass. “I believe his speech is going to allude to it but not say it outright,” she said mysteriously. We will know by Friday how things have panned out.
I put it to Wayne Dupree, an African-American conservative radio talk show host, that a surprising number of people I talked to did not want Trump to run again. “Same thing!” he agreed, saying he shared their views. “I saw what the media did to Donald Trump and his family over the past four years. The way he was attacked for wanting to fix the country was beyond criminal.
“Right now, I think he’s more powerful than the president of the United States. Seventy-five million people voted for him [it was actually 74,222,958]. He can sell out any hall and demand a seat at the table with any leader. He’s going to have his library, his plane, his Secret Service. He needs to find somebody who can carry his torch.”
He added: “Trump heard what we were saying and took it to a larger platform. But he’s not the only one who can represent us. You go to a dangerous place if you put all your marbles in one bag.”
Could it be possible that all the extravagant praise and homage to Trump is just a polite way of urging him to go away? Cool heads know that he lost the election to Biden, as well as control of the Senate. Contrary to predictions, there has not been much wailing at the CPAC about the so-called “stolen” election – though there is plenty of determination to suppress future mail-in balloting.
Yet if Trump chooses to run, it is highly likely he can brazen his way to the front of the pack. In a split field, he can easily win the nomination with a minority of votes, and he might terrify some candidates into not running at all. He intends to tear into Biden’s immigration policies today – and seems almost certain to lash out at Republicans who have dared to cross him.
Even Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader and a harsh critic of the storming of the Capitol, said in an interview last week that he would “absolutely” support Trump if he were the candidate. The same was true of everybody I spoke to in Orlando.
The one person whose future I wonder about is Don Jr. He received a hero’s welcome at the CPAC on Friday, even though there were plenty of whispers among the audience that he was not ready for prime time. Is he impatient to succeed his father? He certainly regards himself as the leading torchbearer of Trumpism.
In his speech he tore into Liz Cheney, the third most senior Republican in the House of Representatives, for voting to impeach his father. “If there is one thing she and Joe Biden definitely want to do, it’s bomb the Middle East,” he joked in reference to last week’s missile strikes on Syria.
Last week Cheney called on Republicans to “make clear we aren’t the party of white supremacy”. In Orlando, Don Jr was caught on camera making the “OK” gesture to an acquaintance – a trolling, supposedly humorous mark of “white power”. It would be unthinkable for mainstream conservatives to adopt that symbol.
The Republican Party has a decision to make about its future direction. This weekend it is embracing the path of least resistance.