Can Boris Johnson make a comeback? Seven possible outcomes in the race for No 10
It might sound like hyperbole but the next week will be one of the most tumultuous in recent British political history.
It might sound like hyperbole but the next week will be one of the most tumultuous in recent political history — even by the standards of the times. So how will the hours and days play out and what are the scenarios as Tory MPs and members cast their ballots to elect the country’s third prime minister in less than four months?
Johnson loses among MPs but wins among the members
During the Tory leadership contest over the summer Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, won the support of 137 Tory MPs. While he had the most backing in the parliamentary party it was not the dominant victory that many had expected.After Liz Truss’s disastrous premiership, however, that is likely to change. Sunak already appears well on the way to hitting the threshold of 100 MPs and is expected to exceed it significantly. He appears on course to gain the backing of the most MPs. In 2019 Boris Johnson crushed his then rival Jeremy Hunt in the parliamentary contest, winning the support of 160 Tory MPs. Given the scandals over sleaze and the Downing Street parties that benighted his premiership, he is unlikely to reach such heights again, although his supporters think he will hit the threshold to stand.If he does, they are confident that he will win over the membership. A recent YouGov survey found that Johnson enjoys a nine-point lead over Sunak among members.The result would be an even more divided Conservative Party. Many of Sunak’s backers believe that Johnson irreparably damaged the reputation of the Conservatives and are unlikely to give him their support. Some have even said they will quit as MPs. Another bloody period of government looks likely.
Johnson and Sunak do a deal
Some senior figures in the party are privately urging the former prime minister and chancellor to bury the hatchet and agree a deal that would avoid a leadership vote altogether next week.The argument goes that without Johnson’s support a Sunak premiership would be doomed because he could never unite the party behind him. But equally a Johnson premiership would be doomed without Sunak because he couldn’t unite the party and lacks the economic credibility that will be vital over the coming weeks.
One senior figure who knows both men said they had an obligation to sit down in the room together and work out a compromise — either with Johnson as PM and Sunak as his deputy and chancellor — or Sunak as PM and Johnson foreign secretary.But at the moment this feels a long way off. While the two teams are understood to be informally talking there is more appetite from the Johnson side for a deal. For now Sunak is said to think it is a non-starter — not least because one of the key reasons he resigned was because of clashes over the government’s economic strategy that have only grown more critical.
Sunak wins among both MPs and members
While Sunak has a significant lead among Tory MPs, it appears less likely that he will win the support of Tory members. To do so he will have to overcome accusations that his disloyalty led to Boris Johnson’s downfall. His pitch is simple, built on fiscal credibility and the fact that he was proved to be right about Truss’s premiership. Johnson, he will argue, would have implemented many of Truss’s most disastrous policies if he had stayed in office — one of the main reasons that he quit. He will argue that Tory MPs have given him a mandate to govern.If Tory members accept this argument, Sunak’s victory will be unanimous.
His government, however, would be hampered by attacks from Johnson supporters. Many of Johnson’s backers harbour a visceral loathing for Sunak that will not be diminished by his ascent to the top job. If anything it will become even more fraught.
Mordaunt comes through the middle
Penny Mordaunt came third in the summer’s leadership election with the support of 105 MPs — only eight votes behind Liz Truss. And the political psychodrama between Sunak and Johnson could potentially play into the hands of Mordaunt if she is able to get on to the ballot. Amid the warring Tory tribes she would be quite a lot of MPs’ second choice and is seen as a more unifying candidate.
Her best chance would be to win round Sunak supporters as the anti-Boris candidate — possibly with a promise to make her rival chancellor. The two would then run a joint ticket in the membership ballot that could be enough to pip Johnson to the post.
But she has major problems. At the moment her vote is being badly squeezed and she has far fewer declared supporters than either Johnson or Sunak and could end up not getting to the 100 MP threshold to go forward to a vote.
There are also concerns — particularly after Truss — that she is not qualified to be prime minister at such a uniquely challenging time.
Johnson drops out and endorses nobody
Despite allowing his supporters effectively to declare his candidacy and get a leadership campaign up and running, Johnson is still being privately urged by some close political allies not to run.Their argument is that it is still too soon for a comeback and that if he returns to No 10 he will face not only the problems he faced in July — but many more besides.
Does he really want to be the prime minister who instigates swingeing spending cuts, they ask? And how could he lead a party that so roundly rejected him only three months ago and where many MPs will refuse to serve in his government and some might quit the party?
Those allies argue that politically and personally it is better for Johnson to pull out of the contest magnanimously saying it would not be right for him to return to Downing Street so soon. That could still pave the way for his return at a later date (possibly even before the next election) after many of the hard choices of the next few months have been made.
As one confidant put it: “They will be desperate by June next year.”
Johnson drops out and endorses Sunak
Probably the most unlikely scenario of them all. The “mutual loathing” between Johnson and Sunak, friends on both sides say, is very real. Johnson believes Sunak orchestrated the coup that cost him his premiership. Sunak believes Johnson has a casual relationship with the truth and no grasp of the fiscal rectitude needed to steer Britain through the economic crisis ahead.
While allies of Johnson are reaching out to Sunak, it is with one thing in mind — securing the former chancellor’s support in a bid to unite the party behind the former prime minister. As one senior Tory trying to broker a deal between Johnson and Sunak put it: “Can you really see Alexander de Pfeffel Johnson playing second fiddle to Rishi?”
Should this unlikely sequence of events transpire, with Johnson serving in a Sunak government, it is unlikely to end well. Johnson’s record as foreign secretary — which he used to help bring an end to Theresa May’s premiership — suggests he is unlikely to remain loyal for long.
Johnson drops out and endorses Mordaunt
If not quite as unlikely as Johnson endorsing Sunak, Johnson endorsing Mordaunt also stretches credibility. He never had a high regard for her when he was prime minister — and his only reason for backing her would be to try to prevent Sunak winning. Given that he never backed Liz Truss over Sunak he is very unlikely to throw his weight behind Mordaunt.
The Times
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