Thaksin back in Bangkok and off to jail as new PM elected

Thailand’s three-month political deadlock ended on Tuesday when its parliament elected property ­tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister.

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra greets his supporters after landing in Bangkok on Tuesday. Picture: AFP

Thailand’s three-month political deadlock ended on Tuesday when its parliament elected property ­tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister, clearing the way for a Pheu Thai-led government expected to work quickly to secure the freedom of its patriarch, Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mr Thaksin, a former Thai prime minister, ended 15 years of self-exile on Tuesday, flying into Bangkok to a rapturous welcome from supporters – only to be taken into custody on outstanding corruption convictions and jailed for eight years.

The 74-year-old had timed his arrival perfectly – just hours before parliament installed a friendly ­coalition government of 11 parties, including several military-linked parties with which Pheu Thai had previously vowed never to align.

Mr Srettha, the coalition’s first choice for prime minister, secured an outright majority of support among 498 lower house MPs and 249 military-appointed senators on Tuesday, despite concerns over prior tax evasion allegations.

His win does little to guarantee stability in Southeast Asia’s ­second largest economy and political analysts have warned of unrest ahead.

Millions of Thais who voted for the Move Forward party on May 14 are furious at the military-­appointed Senate, which in July blocked the election-­winning party from forming government because of its promise to scrap the military-drafted constitution and reform lese majeste laws that punish insults to the monarchy with 15 years’ jail.

Many Pheu Thai loyalists also feel betrayed by the decision to include military-linked parties in its new government.

May’s shock election result, however, has turned Mr Thaksin’s old military enemies into political bedfellows against a new dem­ocratic force determined to reform the country’s crony power structures. “It’s unpredictable what happens next but what is abundantly clear is that both Pheu Thai and Thaksin have now fully committed to working with parties and actors previously aligned with the military. Thaksin’s personal safety is now at stake, after all,” Thai political analyst Napon Jatusripitak told The Australian.

“Pheu Thai now needs to maintain the support of coalition partners plus whoever has the power to make the royal pardon happen for Thaksin.

“I think they can do that. The question is, at what cost?”

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra with daughters Paetongtarn Shinawatra, right, and Pintongtha Kunakornwong, left, after landing at Bangkok’s Don Mueang airport on Tuesday. Picture: AFP

Pheu Thai’s Faustian alliance with the military is also likely to be shaky, and unable to implement campaign promises, Mr Napon predicted.

Many analysts have said any government that excludes Move Forward could trigger protests at least as combustible as those of 2020 and 2021 when the Future Forward Party, Move Forward’s predecessor that won a third of the vote in 2019, was dissolved by the courts.

Mr Thaksin won government in 2001 on a populist platform that promised to improve the lives of impoverished rural Thais and turn around a flagging economy but his time in office – dogged by controversy over his war on drugs and the tax-free sale of his family shares in Shin Corp – proved divisive and he was ousted in a 2006 military coup.

The coup plunged Thailand into turmoil, with pro-Thaksin “Red Shirts” and rival pro-­establishment “Yellow Shirts” supporters regularly clashing in deadly street protests.

The ousted prime minister fled the country in 2008 while facing abuse of power and corruption charges for which he was sentenced in ­absentia to 12 years’ jail.

Three years later, his sister Yingluck led Pheu Thai back to power, only to be ousted in a 2014 coup led by now-outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-Cha.

Mr Thaksin insists his convictions are politically motivated but he has previously scrapped multiple plans to ­return for fear of going to prison.

On Tuesday morning, however, as he prepared finally to fly home to Thailand, he told Nikkei Asia: “It’s time for me to be with the Thai people.”

Thaksin parties have won every election since 2001 and had been expected to do so again in May after his daughter Paetongtarn, 37, led the campaign.

Srettha Thavisin arrives at party headquarters in Bangkok shortly before being elected prime minister. Picture: AFP)

Instead, it came a shock second to Move Forward, whose policies of transparency and account­ability proved popular with Thailand’s urban middle class and young voters tired of the old power structures – monarchy, military, big business – which have long controlled the country.

Post-election, Pheu Thai had little choice but to join hands with the reform party to try to cobble together a majority coalition ­government.

Move Forward’s policies were seen as a direct threat to the monarchy on which Mr Thaksin’s return relied, however.

In July, its prime ministerial candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, was voted down by the Senate, which, under the present constitution, jointly elects the new leader with the 500 elected lower house MPs. That gave Pheu Thai the excuse it needed to form its own coalition in a bid to secure government.