Thailand, Cambodia inch closer to war in border dispute
Neither country can afford a full-scale conflict. But as their century-old border conflict once again escalates, putting Donald Trump’s ceasefire in jeopardy, ‘the danger lies in momentum rather than strategy’.
Thailand and Cambodia are again on the brink of war after 48 hours of sharply-escalating border conflict two nations whose governments have every reason to play the nationalist card for domestic political gain.
On the Cambodian side, anything that diverts attention away from the ruling Hun dynasty’s role in the global online scam industry – and that instead can portray the country as a victim of a larger and more aggressive neighbour – is useful.
On the Thai side, the reignition of a border conflict is timely as Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and his shaky minority government, which goes back to the polls early next year, faces angry recriminations over the mishandling of deadly floods in southern Thailand.
It hardly needs to be said what a dangerous game the two governments are playing, as each side blames the other for breaching the late-October peace agreement for which US President Donald Trump has claimed credit.
In a statement on Wednesday AEDT, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the Trump administration strongly urged “the immediate cessation of hostilities, the protection of civilians, and for both sides to return” to the deal.
The latest clashes began overnight on Sunday with exchanges of gunfire that have since escalated and spread to five areas across an 800km border that the two countries have disputed for more than a century.
Cambodia has accused Thailand of “inhumane and brutal acts” of aggression, while Bangkok says it carried out air strikes on military targets only after its neighbour mobilised heavy weaponry and repositioned combat units.
Thailand has used F-16s to bomb Cambodian territory, including a casino it claims was being used as a drone and military base. Cambodia has used Russian-made BM21 rockets to target military positions inside Thailand.
At least five Thai soldiers and seven Cambodian civilians have been killed and dozens more injured, while thousands of Thai and Cambodian civilians have been forced to flee the conflict zone around the Preah Vihear temple region.
The latest conflict comes just months after a five-day exchange of rockets and heavy artillery in July marked the most serious clashes between the two neighbours in recent history. At least 48 people were killed and 300,000 displaced before Trump’s so-called Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord came into force.
“We did something that a lot of people said couldn’t be done,” he said at the time.
Days later Cambodia nominated the US President for a Nobel Peace Prize.
Yet few believed the ceasefire could hold.
“The agreement in July and the one signed by Trump in October did not really address the underlying cause of the dispute and resolved nothing on the ground,” says Lowy Institute Southeast Asia Program director Susannah Paton.
“All those agreements did was put a lid on a very unstable situation and now things are, somewhat predictably, kicking up again.”
It has been decades since Southeast Asia has seen a full-blown war. The region, and its 700 million people, have prospered from that prolonged peace.
Yet with violence on both sides showing no sign of abating, a key question is whether Trump – who has repeatedly cited the Thai-Cambodia agreement as an example of his peacemaking prowess – will again use the threat of higher US tariffs, or something more severe, to pull both sides back to the table.
“(Trump) may have to make an even bigger threat to get the two sides to pause the violence which I think will get worse in coming days,” says Thithinan Pongshudhirak, a professor and security fellow at the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulangkorn University.
“This is a budding war. The escalation we have seen in the last 48 hours, and the weaponry involved … they’re war weapons, that’s not a skirmish.”
Beyond lives lost, the economic harm to both sides is particularly severe because the number of people affected in the border area is so large.
Around a million Cambodian migrant workers fled Thailand during the July clashes, though as many as half a million have since returned because of a lack of jobs at home.
Thai officials have said 380,000 people are again being moved to shelters, while Cambodian authorities say 1157 families have been relocated from Oddar Meanchey province.
While Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim helped mediate a cessation of hostilities after July’s conflict, ASEAN’s annually-rotating chairmanship has now passed to Philippines’ president Ferdinand Marcos junior who may not be as adept at handling such a crisis.
In any case, Thai PM Anutin has insisted “there will be no talks” with Cambodia following the latest eruption.
“From now on there will be no negotiations of any kind,” he said late on Monday. “If the fighting is to stop, Cambodia must follow the course of action set by Thailand.”
His military chief of staff, General Chaipruak Doungprapat, has also forewarned his intention to “cripple Cambodia’s military capability for a long time to come” so that it can no longer put Thai lives at risk and provoke the far larger, better equipped Thai army into escalation.
Professor Pongsudhirak says Cambodia’s attempt to frame the dispute as a David and Goliath battle poses significant risks for Thailand which could easily defeat its neighbour militarily but still lose the battle of international public opinion if it overreacts.
Cambodia has for decades sought to internationalise its border dispute with Thailand, one that often focuses on the two countries’ claims to the 11th-century Hindu temple Preah Vihear, or Khao Phra Viharn in Thailand, but in a broader sense involves large parts of a shared border that have never been agreed upon.
Phnom Penh has twice taken the issue to the International Court of Justice, which in 1962 awarded the temple to Cambodia, only for Thailand to continue to lay claim to the surrounding land.
In recent years the two countries militaries have come to blows in 2008, in 2011 and again last July after the death of a Cambodian soldier during a brief skirmish with Thai forces sparked a fresh military build up on both sides that eventually exploded into open conflict.
Tensions spiked again last month after four Thai soldiers patrolling the border were maimed by what Thailand says were landmines laid by Cambodian forces since July – an accusation denied by Phnom Penh.
Bangkok suspended de-escalation measures agreed to under the October ceasefire and days later the Thai King met with Xi Jinping during his first ever visit to Beijing, accompanied by Prime Minister Anutin.
“Right after that Beijing visit, Anutin publicly said he no longer cared about the threats of US tariffs,” Cambodia analyst Ou Virak said on Tuesday.
“Trump was a major stabilising force and the main reason the Thai side was forced to the negotiating table. But Thailand have now said there will be no direct negotiation and no third party negotiations either, which is basically flipping the finger to the peace agreements signed in Kuala Lumpur.”
Mr Virak, who heads Cambodia’s independent Future Forum think tank, told The Australian Bangkok “appears to be using China as a way to tell the US it has other options, which is very interesting given Thailand is a US ally”.
How that goes down in Washington will be one to watch.
Still, despite Thailand’s public insistence of no talks, neither Bangkok nor Phnom Penh can afford a sustained conflict.
Most agree both sides will have to resume talks even if the immediate chance of continued strikes and counter-strikes are much higher than they were a week ago.
“Air power has now entered the equation, and that changes the psychology of the crisis,” says Cambodian-American political scientist Sophal Ear.
“Escalation in Southeast Asia often follows a pattern of rapid flare-ups driven by miscalculation rather than intention. The danger lies in momentum rather than strategy.
“Neither side wants a full conflict, but that does not prevent escalation in the short term.”
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