Singapore Covid-19 case surge a wake-up call for Australia

The city state suffers its steepest infection surge of the pandemic as it transitions to a policy of living with the virus.

Passengers from Amsterdam at Changi Airport on October 20, a day after Singapore began quarantine-free entry for fully vaccinated passengers from eight countries. Picture: AFP

Australians should enjoy a “honeymoon” break from Covid-19 surges this summer, thanks to a population buzzing with newly conferred vaccine ­immunity and a national tradition of sun worship.

But for a glimpse into our near-future, Singapore experts say the “controlled wave” now sweeping the Southeast Asian city state is likely inevitable for Australia too.

Singapore is experiencing its steepest infection surge since the beginning of the pandemic as it transitions to a policy of living with the virus, with an average of 3000 to 4000 new cases a day.

More than 98 per cent of those are asymptomatic or mild, though in the past 28 days there have also been 300 Covid deaths – 70 per cent of Singapore’s total fatalities.

Regional infectious disease specialist Dale Fisher says the Singapore surge is partly the ­result of waning efficacy of vaccines rolled out earlier than in Australia, and the fact few Singaporeans had contracted the virus by the time authorities began easing restrictions.

“A couple of weeks after you’ve had the vaccine is when it’s most effective (80 per cent) in preventing transmission, but four to six months later it’s more like 40 per cent,” said Professor Fisher, an Australian-born adviser to the World Health Organisation and Singapore government.

“So there has been a waning in the prevention of mild disease”, where antibodies are no longer stopping someone from being ­infected even if they are still ­largely preventing severe illness.

Some 94 per cent of Singaporeans aged 12 and over have been vaccinated, and authorities are close to approving vaccinations for primary school children.

As of this week, any Singaporean resident over the age of 30 and already double jabbed is eligible for a walk-in booster shot.

Of the hundreds of Covid patients in hospital, more than two thirds of those on oxygen or in ICU are unvaccinated, though health authorities conceded last week they were seeing an “unusual surge” of infections after a daily case peak of 5324.

“What matters in Singapore is not that we have 3000 or 4000 new cases a day but that we have 75 empty ICU beds which gives us a bit of comfort,” Professor Fisher says.

“You can expect this to happen in Australia because it’s quite similar in that there’s very little natural immunity and vaccination rates are climbing.

“There will be these surges as the restrictions are pulled down, but the fact it is coming into summer in Australia – when everyone opens their windows and flocks outdoors – and everyone has been recently vaccinated could mean the surge won’t be as big as it could have been.

“I think Australia could have a bit of a honeymoon for the next few months, though I’d be a bit more worried in six months when you’re going back into winter.”

Many Singaporeans would argue their Covid honeymoon did not last nearly long enough.

The government tightened social restrictions last month, even as it began reopening to foreigners, including Australians.

From next Monday vaccinated Australian arrivals may enter Singapore without quarantining, while Australia reopens to all vaccinated Singaporeans from ­November 21.