Russia deploys 70pc of troops needed for attack: US
If Russia does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital Kiev in a matter of 48 hours.
US intelligence assessments say Russia is stepping up preparations for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine and has now put in place 70 per cent of the forces it would need for such an attack, US officials said on Sunday.
Russia has assembled 110,000 troops along its border with Ukraine, but US intelligence has not determined whether President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade, according to officials who held briefings in recent days with members of congress and European allies.
The officials warned congress members that the assembled Russian force on the frontier with Ukraine was growing at a rate that would give Mr Putin the force he needs for a full-scale invasion – some 150,000 soldiers – by the middle of the month.
The officials said Mr Putin wanted to have all possible options at his disposal: from a limited invasion of the pro-Russian Donbas region of Ukraine to a full-scale, all-out invasion.
Russia denies it is planning to invade Ukraine. If Russia does opt for a full-scale attack, the invading force could take the capital, Kiev, and topple President Volodymyr Zelensky in a matter of 48 hours, the officials said.
Such an attack would leave 25,000 to 50,000 civilians dead, along with 5000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3000 to 10,000 Russian ones. It could also trigger a refugee flood of one to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials said.
A first contingent of US soldiers, from the 82nd Airborne Division, arrived on Saturday in Poland, where President Joe Biden has decided to send American forces to protect NATO members from any possible aggression, as diplomats work to try to persuade Russia to pull its troops back from the border with Ukraine.
US intelligence has concluded that Russia is continuing to muster a major military force on its border with Ukraine. Two weeks ago, a total of 60 Russian army battalions were positioned to the north, east and south of Ukraine, particularly in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed after an invasion in 2014. On Friday, there were 80 battalions and 14 more were en route from elsewhere in Russia, US officials said.
Some 1500 special forces soldiers known as Spetsnaz arrived on the Ukraine border a week ago.
A Russian naval force is also positioned in the Black Sea, equipped with five amphibious vessels that could be used to land troops on Ukraine’s southern coast. The US officials said another six amphibious craft were observed leaving the Barents Sea north of Russia, sailing past Britain and through the Strait of Gibraltar, apparently on their way to the Black Sea.
In other deployments, Russia has positioned fighter planes near Ukraine, as well as bombers, missile batteries and anti-aircraft batteries, US officials said.
On Thursday, the US said it had evidence that Russia was preparing a video depicting a bogus attack by Ukraine that would serve as a pretext for a real Russian assault on Ukraine.
AFP
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