Russia begins packing up military equipment in Syria, satellite images show

Satellite imagery shows Russian troops preparing to load cargo at Moscow’s main air base in Syria, signalling the early stages of a military withdrawal from the country in a huge blow for Putin.

Maxar Technologies satellite imagery shows an Antonov An-124 heavy transport aircraft preparing to load equipment at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Syria's western province of Latakia. Picture: Maxar via AFP.

Russian troops were preparing to load cargo at Moscow’s main air base in Syria, Maxar satellite imaging showed, potentially signalling the early stages of a military withdrawal from the country following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad.

Two An-124 heavy transport aircraft were at the air base with their nose cones lifted and prepared to load cargo, the images showed. Nearby, a Ka-52 attack helicopter and an S-400 air-defence system were being dismantled, likely for transport.

“The Russian withdrawal is picking up steam,” Dara Massicot, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, posted on X. “Whether it will be full or partial is unclear so far.” On Thursday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said Moscow had made contact with the new political leadership of Syria with the hope of negotiating permission to continue using the Khmeimim base, as well as a naval installation in Tartus, which Moscow had used since the Cold War. Moscow hasn’t indicated how the talks are proceeding.

Maxar Technologies satellite imagery shows an Antonov An-124 heavy transport aircraft preparing to load equipment at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base. Picture: Maxar via AFP.

The two bases had become synonymous with Russia’s intervention in Syria, which deployed ferocious air power to hit the rebel groups arrayed against Assad. Russia said they intended to use the bases under the new Syrian leadership to hit Islamic State, which has pockets of resistance in eastern Syria.

The loss of Khmeimim and Tartus would be a huge blow to Russia, forcing it to look elsewhere, including to Algeria, Sudan or Libya, for potential replacement bases. But Moscow has few options that offer the same advantages as Syria’s Tartus port, one of Russia’s few accessible warm-water ports.

Both the bases were a keystone in the Kremlin’s efforts to project power into the East Mediterranean and Africa. Following Russia’s initial success in Syria, it became a blueprint for Russian intervention elsewhere, from the Central African Republic, where Russia’s Wagner mercenaries protected President Faustin-Archange Touadéra from rebel groups, to Sudan, Libya and Mali.

Maxar said the location of Russian ships had remained largely unchanged since Dec. 10 and that two frigates were still offshore of Tartus.

“The Russian Mediterranean Task Force remains in limbo, anchored on the edge of Syria’s territorial waters, indicating that Russia is not yet willing to withdraw,” Frederik Van Lokeren, a former officer of the Belgian Navy and Russian Navy analyst, posted on X.

Dow Jones