In his first comments after being named as Donald Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance showed why he is both a risk and an opportunity for Trump’s chances of a second term in the White House.
The 39-year-old Vance is smart and eloquent, and has shrewdly adjusted his own formerly hardline positions on issues such as abortion to dovetail with Trump’s populist agenda.
Recounting the moment this week when Trump asked him to be his running mate, Vance told Fox News that Trump said: “I think we’ve got to go save this country.
“I think you’re the guy who can help me in the best way, you can help me govern, he can help me win, you can help me in some of these midwestern states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and so forth.”
Vance is a young fresh face who, because of his runaway best selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which recounted his dirt-poor upbringing in an Ohio steel town, is well known already to millions of Americans.
But he is a self-styled MAGA warrior who is therefore a fellow traveller rather than a foil to Trump who might have appealed to non-MAGA American conservatives.
This makes him a brazen pick for Trump.
By choosing Vance, Trump has signalled that he does not have to pander to any other wing or constituency of the Republican Party to win another term, instead choosing another white male MAGA warrior to excite his already loyal red meat fan base.
There are several reasons why Vance is a problematic choice for Trump when he was considering other more experienced candidates such as Florida senator Marco Rubio, South Carolina senator Tim Scott or North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.
Firstly, Vance would be one of the youngest and the least experienced US vice-presidents in living memory.
He has a compelling rags-to-riches story and the best-selling Hillbilly Elegy, which chronicles his rise to achieving a Yale law degree and beyond. But Vance is not even 40 and his only experience in government is his 18 months as Senator since early last year.
The shocking assassination attempt on Trump was a reminder that vice-presidents can suddenly find themselves leading the nation in a blink and Vance – at first blush – appears singularly underqualified for that moment.
Consider the contrast with Trump’s last vice-president, Mike Pence, who was an experienced hand who appealed to the traditional wing of the Republican Party and served as a foil to Trump’s populist approach.
Pence stood up to Trump when Trump tried to pressure him to take steps to overturn the 2020 election. Would a young rookie like Vance be brave enough to stand up to Trump if necessary?
So which voters does Vance bring to Trump who are not already with Trump?
The choice of Rubio would have helped win Latino voters and the choice of Scott would have lured African-American voters, while a woman would have helped Trump’s women vote.
But Vance brings more of the same. By choosing him as his running mate, Trump is declaring that this is his party and he can win without pandering to minorities, women or to other Reaganite conservatives. Is that confidence or misplaced arrogance?
If anything, Vance will help Trump drift further from mainstream middle-ground American voters. Vance is an isolationist who has said he is OK with Russia eventually ending up with a chunk of Ukraine. He opposes US aid to Ukraine and says the war is none of America’s business. These are not views Australia will welcome.
On abortion, Vance held hardline views that are well to the right of mainstream American opinion and is now moving strategically to temper those to ensure these views are not an electoral liability.
Vance’s heavy-handed response to the shooting of Trump also raised eyebrows, when he blamed Joe Biden and the Democrats for rhetoric which he said “led directly to president Trump’s attempted assassination”.
Vance is from Ohio, which is not even a swing state, although it is in the midwest which will be a critical battleground in November. Hillbilly Elegy showed him in tune with the plight of working-class families in dying towns.
Much is made of Vance’s early attacks on Trump in 2016 when he said he could become “America’s Hitler”. But the two have long made up. In fact Vance has swung so far to the right in his beliefs to embrace all things Trump that one wonders whether he really has any convictions beyond allying himself to Trump.
If Trump somehow loses this election narrowly, then he may rue the moment he chose JD Vance over someone who was not a mini-me of himself.
More Coverage
‘National emergency’ decree to help pay for mass deportation
People close to the president-elect are starting to think of ways to pay for it.
The business leaders who have joined Team Trump
Donald Trump’s second administration is months away from taking office but the charm offensive from business leaders has already begun.