Republicans poised to retake both houses

Republicans are back in the box seat to retake both houses of congress three weeks out from US mid-term elections.

US President Joe Biden with Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona in Washington on Tuesday (AEDT). Picture: Getty Images

Republicans are back in the box seat to retake both houses of congress three weeks out from US mid-term elections, as record inflation, immigration and rising crime loom larger in American voters’ minds than the prospect of diminished abortion rights and student debt relief.

As the White House moved to hose down criticism that President Joe Biden hadn’t appeared on stage yet with any Democrat candidates running for congress, a sign they didn’t want him to, two major national opinion polls last week put Republicans significantly ahead of Democrats in the final weeks of the campaign.

“Republicans are inching back towards a wave election after a summer when abortion seemed to turn the tides,” said Mark Penn, a director at the Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll, which gave Republicans a 53-47 lead over Democrats, a stark turnaround from September’s poll that had Democrats two points ahead.

“People are more motivated to vote when they are upset, and the Republicans are capturing voter dissatisfaction on inflation, crime, and immigration,” Mr Penn said, suggesting Americans were “suffering incredible economic anx­iety on top of normal buyer’s remorse for the President and his party in a mid-term”.

The Supreme Court decision in June to rescind a 49-year-old right to an abortion, returning the issue to the states, triggered a revival in support for Democrats across the US over the summer that cast doubt on Republicans’ earlier hopes of retaking both chambers in the 8 November poll.

A Siena College poll found Republicans had a four-percentage-point advantage, with 49 per cent support, compared with Democrats’ one-point edge in the previous poll, a margin that ballooned to 10 points in favour of Republicans among independent voters, who typically decide US elections.

“I’m shifting more towards Republican because I feel like they’re more geared towards business,” Robin Ackerman, a 37-year-old Democrat and mortgage loan officer who lives in Delaware, told the New York Times, which helped to conduct the Siena poll.

Ms Ackerman told The Times she disagreed “1000 per cent” with overturning Roe v Wade “but that doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision … I’m more worried about other things.”

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday (Tuesday AEDT) struggled to bat way criticism from journalists that the President, who in recent weeks attended campaign fund-raisers in New York, California and Oregon, hadn’t yet appeared alongside any Democrat congressional candidates. “I’m not going to go into the details of what these events are going to look like,” she said, adding Mr Biden would appear alongside Pennsylvania lieutenant-governor John Fetterman, whose campaign to win a Senate spot against celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, had started to struggle amid health difficulties.

Betting markets confirm Republicans’ improving fortunes, giving the GOP over the past week the better chance of winning the upper house chamber, currently split 50-50, for the first time since July.

Democrats’ flagging fortunes convinced former president Barack Obama to announce two rallies in Atlanta and Detroit for later this month in a last-ditch bid to help Democrats keep control of the legislative branch of government and with it scope for the Biden administration to pass laws.

Sarah Bryner, director of research at OpenSecrets, said Democrats had out fundraised Repub­licans in the third quarter.