Prabowo’s ‘grandad’ dance not enough to avoid second-round

Indonesians could be facing another six months of presidential campaigning with frontrunner Prabowo Subianto’s chances of a first round win next month on the wane.

Prabowo Subianto during the third presidential debate on January 7. Picture: AFP

Barely 24 hours after Indonesia’s frontrunner presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto faltered in a heated election debate last week, supporters were posting TikTok videos of themselves weeping in sympathy at his victimisation by rivals.

An edited video of the 72-year-old Defence Minister looking crestfallen at the attacks from his presidential competitors, former provincial governors Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan, also was soon circulating on social media.

By last weekend Mr Prabowo had perked up and once again was performing his adorable grandad dance for voters in Sumatra and Medan as the Suharto-era special forces commander – dismissed from the military over the alleged disappearances of demo­cracy activists – accelerated his push for a first-round victory.

Momen Prabowo joget gemoy usai makan siang bareng sejumlah kelompok Pekerja, Nelayan, dan Bentor di Medan. pic.twitter.com/H2cL0Bx1Kc

— suaradotcom (@suaradotcom) January 13, 2024

Fresh Prabowo banners have since sprouted across Jakarta advising voters it would be “cheaper” to avoid a second-round June vote by handing him a decisive February 14 win.

“It’s better for the money to go to the Indonesian people,” the two-time loser to President Joko Widodo told supporters at a recent campaign event.

His campaign secretary was singing from the same song sheet last Thursday, insisting Indonesians did not want the campaign to coincide with the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, which falls in March this year.

“The public desires this election to be conducted in a single round,” said Nusron Wahid. “If this election is held in just one round, the country could save 27 trillion rupiah.”

Yet the chances of that appear to be waning, notwithstanding Mr Prabowo’s 20-percenatge point lead and the support of outgoing President Jokowi whose son Gibran Rakabuming Raka

A supporter of Prabowo Subianto gets a tattoo of his face. Picture: AFPAFP)

Mr Prabowo controversially named as his running mate last October.

Jokowi is said to be anxious that the Prabowo team poll numbers are stuck between 43 and 46.7 per cent so close to the vote, given they must secure more than 50 per cent nationally, and 20 per cent in 19 provinces, to avoid a run-off.

Polling experts say the odds of that hover around 40 per cent once variations in turnout are taken into account. “The frontrunner is more likely to underperform because of differential turnout … so expect Prabowo to not do any better than his polls,” SNS Analytics pollster Seth Soderborg told The Australian.

The contest is looking increasingly like a race for second place as Mr Ganjar and Mr Anies chip away at the once intemperate Mr Prabowo’s new “gemoy” (adorable) image – rumoured to have been fashioned by the spin doctors who helped Philippines President Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos to victory in 2022.

Mr Ganjar’s campaign received a much-needed boost from last week’s confident debate performance, having earlier struggled to find a point of difference given his pledge to continue Jokowi’s flagship programs.

Mr Anies, the former Jakarta governor running on a “change” platform, also is gaining votes from those dissatisfied with Jokowi as well as those concerned at a Prabowo-Gibran victory – including hardline Islamists such as Abu Bakar Bashir.

The spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiah, the terror group behind the 2002 Bali bombings, has declared his support for Mr Anies and running mate Muhaimin Iskandar, claiming they “understand Islam” and will try to govern this country with Islamic laws “as much as possible”.

The rival camps have hinted at pooling resources in a second round, though either could just as likely throw their support behind Mr Prabowo if his leads begins to look unassailable.

Lembaga Survei Indonesia pollster Djayadi Hanan said whether or not Indonesians must vote a second time, “I think sooner or later Prabowo will be the president if there is no blunder. It’s very difficult to imagine in the second round that Anies and Ganjar could be 100 per cent united, which is a necessary precondition to balance Prabowo.”

Additional reporting: Dian Septiari